Dr. Fan Ning of Health In Action, Dr. Judith Mackay of the World Health Organisation, and Antonio Kwong Cho-sing of the Council on Smoking and Health may not at first appear to be enablers of Hong Kong organised crime, yet by their enthusiastic support for increases in tobacco taxes there are no greater lobbyists for an increase in triad profits and increased criminal activity in Hong Kong.

Any economist or ICAC investigator will tell you; create a market barrier through regulation or tax and you create incentive for illegal activity to bypass that barrier.

Our three anti-smoking crusaders are all interested in increasing the Hong Kong duty on tobacco by at least 100% in their zeal to reduce smoking. I am a cigar smoker, and a bit of a hypocrite in that I am perfectly fine with the current public restrictions on smoking in our city. Smoking has dropped to just about 10% of the population, and if it drops further that would be a good thing in terms of health costs. No one disputes the link between smoking and cancer.

But increasing taxes on tobacco is the equivalent of setting lions free on the streets to hunt rats. Current duty on 1000 cigarettes is $1906 or $38 per pack of cigarettes. Wholesale grey market Marlboro's outside Hong Kong can be bought at $15 per pack. As such Hong Kong taxes are already twice the cost of the actual product, and why we have our triads bringing in about 35% of all cigarettes consumed in our city.

It's big money. Any commonsensical math reckoning of the lost duty revenue places the figure near $2 billion. But it's best not to think of it as lost revenue, rather consider it triad profit. If, as proposed, government raises duty by 100% to satisfy our three nanny state anti-tobacco activists the triads are delivered smokers who will seek out illegal cigarettes as well as a profit margin increase that tobacco companies would envy.

Yes, cigarettes cause cancer. Yes, increased duties on cigarettes create an incentive for increased smuggling, crime, and triad activities. Both can be true. But increasing criminal activity with an increase in tobacco duties is unwise public policy when other tools, such as education and treatment, deliver proven reductions in smoking.