Conflicts between the Chinese Communist Party(CCP) and the US government are becoming apparent and intensified. No matter it turns out to be a cold or a hot war, it is on the verge of breaking out. Although the U.S. government accuses the CCP of encroaching on Hong Kong’s autonomy with the national security law, contravening its obligation stated in the 1984 Sino-British Joint Declaration as well as eroding the freedom of Hong Kong people, we should not naïvely believe that the US and other western countries will lend a helping hand merely for the sake of the autonomy and freedom of Hong Kong.

After all, utilitarianism dominates international relations. If it had not been for the trade disputes and loss of human lives caused by Wuhan pneumonia, the U.S. government might not have been aware of CCP’s ambition to compete for world hegemony and taken imminent actions. The Hong Kong issue is just a high-sounding excuse for the States to come forward.

Hong Kongers live in fear amid unknown situation

In view of the unambiguous stance of the U.S., both negotiations for settling conflicts and a drawn game are not options. What sanctions will the U.S. impose on the CCP? How many nations will join the actions? To what extent will these measures impact on the CCP and the Chinese society? How long can the CCP stand against it? How Chinese people will react to the adversity brought about by those sanctions? There are no answers to all these questions in the short term.

Other western countries are also calculating their own interests. With regard to their respective trade relations with China, their pecuniary loss might not be comparable to that of the U.S., or they might even be benefited. The fatalities caused by Wuhan pneumonia and the value conflicts with China eroding Hong Kong’s autonomy are not yet a trigger for them being resolutely up in arms against the CCP. Nevertheless, when the US-China tension escalates, they are bound to take sides. A clearer picture will be shown by then.

Xi Jingping might have no choice as well! Hence, he decided to launch the Hong Kong national security law that prompted the U.S. to take actions. Although the U.S.’s acute reaction is kind of predictable, Xi still has to confront the enormous impacts the sanctions might bring about to the Chinese economy and society. The answers to whether Xi can appease the discontent with him from within the CCP, and whether the Chinese society can bear the subsequent economic upheavals, will determine CCP’s countermeasures, including its strategy towards Hong Kong.

No one knows whether what the U.S. and western countries do can safeguard the freedom and autonomy of Hong Kong, nor does one know how long it will take for this to work. How stringent will the national security law be? Will Chinese national security officers arrest a large number of dissidents in Hong Kong? Will the arrested be sent to the mainland for trial and imprisonment? No protesters can answer. Hong Kong people will inevitably live in fear, uncertainty, and anxiety in the days ahead.

Hong Kong has become a zero-sum game battlefield for the CCP, the U.S. and western countries. Like it or not, the storm is nearing. We have embarked on a path of no return - Hong Kong might be degraded to just another city in China, or we can maintain our strategic position as the fort of freedom. Being put in a changeable situation, we have no choice but to bravely move forward.

While the Hong Kong issue has escalated to an unprecedented international level, we can do something, but not nothing, about it. It is unnecessary for us to “collude” with foreign forces as the whole world is closely watching the development of Hong Kong, not least whether the September Legislative Council election is fair. To minimize losses, we must continue deploying actions at all levels, including roadshows, elections, councils, civil society, and cultural evolution, to show to the world our determination and ability to pursue freedom, democracy, and autonomy. Even though we were vigorously suppressed by the CCP with the national security law, we never give in. It is this kind of persistence which makes Hong Kong stand out in the zero-sum game battlefield.

It might be stormy now, but it does not rain forever. Let’s stay strong and stand firm. The only thing we can do is to wait patiently for the return of sunny days.

(Benny Tai Yiu-Ting is a Hong Kong legal scholar and democracy activist.)

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