by Fong Yuen

The CCP central government has recently held a working meeting on Taiwan affairs in 2021, which was mediocre with neither new direction nor strategy. Wang Yang, Chairman of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, emphasized “accurate response, “scientific response,” “risk awareness,” and “bottom-line thinking.” They were all empty words that show the embarrassing state of CCP, clueless on what to do with Taiwan affairs. This meeting wanted to respond to the latest development of U.S.-Taiwan relations, but it has made no impact.

All former U.S. presidents used their China policy as the foundation to build Taiwan policy. The U.S.-Taiwan policy always obeys the U.S.-China policy, and many restrictions have been put on Taiwan. The U.S. rather overdid with the restrictions than not enough as it was scared to offend the CCP. However, since Trump took office, the U.S. has completely altered its fundamental stance. Nearly everyone from both the Senate and the House of Representatives voted to pass several Taiwan related bills. Trump’s administration introduced some policies successively to revive the U.S.-Taiwan relations.

Former Secretary of State Pompeo announced the U.S. would cancel all existing limitations on the U.S. contact with Taiwan, indicating their official visits to each other will raise a level. It also means the official Taiwan agency based in the U.S. will enjoy more privileged treatments and freedom of movement.

Kelly Craft, the U.S. ambassador to the UN, has a video conference with Tsai Ing-wen. Tsai expressed Taiwan hopes to participate in the UN and its affiliated meetings and events. Craft also agreed with this and said in a subsequent tweeted article, “because one day, you (Taiwan), too, will be standing here (the UN).”

More importantly, the U.S. government has broken its usual practice and published the U.S. Strategic Framework for the Indo-Pacific 30 years early. This document stressed that the U.S. seeks militarily to deter China from attacking the U.S. and its allies and to develop means to counter and defeat China “across the spectrum of conflict.” The U.S. denies China’s air and sea dominance within the first island chain. It promises to defend the countries and regions of the first island chain, including Taiwan, and to dominate “all domains outside the first island chain.” This document makes it clear the U.S. has substantial responsibility for Taiwan’s security and defense.

Senior officials at the U.S. Foreign Ministry such as Blinken, the new Secretary of State, and Campbell, Coordinator for Indo-Pacific affairs, have a good relationship with Taiwan. Blinken stressed the U.S., regardless of which party, has committed Taiwan’s security and will continue to honor its commitment. If China invades Taiwan, it would be a “grievous mistake.”

Taiwan’s representative to the U.S., Hsiao Bi-khim, was invited to attend the inauguration ceremony of President Biden for the first time. It showed that Biden’s government is going to handle the U.S.-Taiwan relations independent of the CCP’s desires, and to that incident, the CCP could only pretend that it did not happen.

The CCP’s Taiwan policy cannot be separated from the two tactics of cultural reunification and military reunification. Cultural reunification is the ideal move, while military reunification is the undesirable one. Cultural reunification is based on “one country, two systems” and the “1992 Consensus”; military reunification is relying on the hopes that the U.S. would not interfere with the cross-straight war. The CCP had always planned to use Hong Kong as a demo of “one country, two systems”, but the anti-ELAB movement and National Security Law have fully exposed the lies of the CCP. The “1992 Consensus” has also been reduced to a political, rhetorical murmur of a very small number of KMT pro-China people.

As for military reunification, ore than 60% of Taiwan’s citizens are determined to defend the country should the CCP invade Taiwan by force. Taiwan has been purchasing a large number of American advanced weapons, and the U.S. Strategic Framework for the Indo-Pacific” (SFIP) also dissolved the threat of the “first battle being the last”, a theory put forth by Ma Ying-jeou. The U.S warships and military aircraft have been frequenting the Taiwan Strait, not to mention the military cooperation the U.K., Australia, Germany, and Japan have with the U.S. These are all solemn responses to the CCP’s military threats.

The latest relationship updates between the U.S. and Taiwan is based on the U.S.’ global strategy. With Taiwan’s high-tech industry being the key to the U.S. supply chain, the security of the island is closely tied to the geopolitical interests of the U.S. and other Western allies. More importantly, Taiwan’s democratic system stands at the forefront of universal value demonstration. There is no way the U.S. would just sit back and watch the island be militarily reunified by the CCP.

CCP’s Ministry of the National Defense has recently once again reiterated that Taiwan’s independence Is the bottom line to start a war. It hinted that as long as Taiwan stops declaring independence, there will be no war between the two sides of the Strait. As such, for Taiwan, the best option is to stay in the status quo; however, maintaining the status quo also brings the most unfavorable prospects: the longer the status quo is dragged on, the wide the mental and emotional divide between the Taiwanese and the CCP. The higher in status Taiwan gets on the international stage, its infrastructure and system will be more stable, meaning that reunification will be more distant and hopeless.

The CCP’s hands are tied in the face of the current U.S.-Taiwan relations. Neither culture nor military reunification can be deployed. A working session on Taiwan is but a meeting on paper for propaganda. Reunification is hopeless, but the U.S.-Taiwan relations are elevating by the day. Watching this continual upgrade from afar, the CCP could only sigh to the ocean. Recently, Xi Jinping emphasized that “time and momentum” are on the side of the CCP. Equipped with these two, let’s wait and see how Xi is going to resolve this Taiwan problem.

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