The day before yesterday, the Shandong aircraft carrier of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy sailed from the East China Sea, through the Taiwan Straits and entered the South China Sea. The Taiwan military was on high alert and deployed warships and air force military aircraft to track and monitor the whole process.

This is certainly not the first time that a PLA aircraft carrier has crossed the Taiwan Strait. However, in recent months, the cross-strait tug-of-war has intensified, and the PLA Navy and Air Force have been operating frequently in the sea domains and airspace around Taiwan. In addition, the situation in the U.S. has not yet been completely clarified due to Trump’s refusal to admit defeat after the election, which has the White House hanging in midair. Under these multiple factors, many discussions on the Internet have suggested that this is the “best time” for the PLA to attack Taiwan, and therefore any movement in the Taiwan Strait will hit a sensitive nerve with many people. Naturally, Taiwan’s response to the PLA’s move is only logical and necessary.

Despite the fact that the U.S. power transfer farce will probably not officially wind down until mid-January next year when Biden is formally sworn in on inauguration day, it does not mean that the U.S. military will lose its responsiveness to developments in the Asia-Pacific region, especially in the Taiwan Strait, between now and the time the new administration takes office. While Trump does not have the power to send troops to force a “re-vote” in key states, as his former national security adviser Michael Flynn said, he still has the ability to mobilize the U.S. fleet to guard the Taiwan Strait at any time until he steps down. Although Trump is close to being on “strike” in dealing with the crisis of the U.S. epidemic, the U.S. is not a “one-man-band” so not everything has to wait for the top leader to “command and deploy” personally. In fact, the attention of U.S. State Department and Pentagon officials have never been diverted from the Asia-Pacific region in light of the election chaos, as attested by the new round of U.S. sanctions against the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the American destroyer transiting through the Taiwan Strait. Not to mention that Trump only has the “anti-China card” left, so he will not be totally unresponsive if there is a crisis in the Taiwan Strait. Therefore, the so-called “best time” for the PLA to attack Taiwan does not actually exist.

A few months ago, I mentioned in my article “No preemptive strike in Sino-U.S. hot war,” that if the PLA were to invade Taiwan, there would be a massive mobilization of troops and warships to the southeast coast, and it would be difficult to escape the surveillance of the U.S. and Taiwan no matter how the PLA disguises itself. Therefore, if the PLA makes such a move, the U.S. and Taiwan will have considerable time to respond. For this reason, it is difficult for the PLA to attack Taiwan without any action from the U.S. military. If the PLA wants to secure a successful attack on Taiwan, it must either be certain that the U.S. will not send troops to Taiwan, or be so militarily powerful that the U.S. will not dare or even be able to send troops to Taiwan. The former is not in the control of the CCP, and without certainty is like taking a big gamble, not to mention the fact that it is almost impossible under the confrontation between China and the U.S. in the Asia-Pacific region. The latter is a situation that the CCP wants to create, but it will take at least a decade for the PLA to completely dominate the U.S. military in the Asia-Pacific region. If one of these two prerequisites is not met, it is unlikely that the CCP would rashly attack Taiwan by betting on the fate of its own regime. Therefore, as far as Taiwan is concerned, the CCP’s attack on Taiwan is only a medium- to long-term threat, not the most imminent one.

The CCP still lacks certainty in attacking Taiwan, but the frequent interference by naval aircraft has the effect of exhausting and deterring Taiwan. The PLA’s military exercises around the Taiwan Strait have both political implications of deterring Taiwan and practical effects of allowing soldiers to familiarize themselves with the Taiwan Strait environment and sea conditions. For Taiwan, the frequent activities of PLA warships in the vicinity also mean that its own aircraft are constantly deployed to intercept, track and monitor. This is undoubtedly a major burden for Taiwan’s military that has aging equipment and inadequate maintenance, as well as lacks the support of a competent military system, as reflected by the frequent accidents of Taiwan’s fighter planes. In contrast, most of the PLA’s equipment can be domestically produced and supplied with its own parts. Without the need to engage in combat, the PLA can already deplete the service life and parts of Taiwanese aircraft simply by letting them “fly alongside,” which is causing a headache for Taiwan. In order to respond to the threat, Taiwan must devote more resources to national defense, which will inevitably sacrifice other social resources.

If the two sides of the strait are caught in an accelerated arms race, the Mainland, with its huge economy and autocracy, will have an overwhelming competitive advantage in resources, and Taiwan’s coffers will be too poor to counteract it. Ultimately, social instability may arise under the threat of military force and financial hardship. The CCP has not yet attacked Taiwan, but the strategy of exhausting and deterring Taiwan will come first. As to how to deal with this predicament, it is a priority for Taiwan to think carefully.

(Lam Hoi, journalist)

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