While the COVID-19 pandemic spreads globally, the CCP’s thinly veiled ambition of global hegemony and expansion is also becoming increasingly visible to the world. This has also heightened tensions in the Taiwan Strait and Asia, as evidenced by the acceleration of military cooperation between the US, Japan, India, and Australia and the sending of warships to the Western Pacific and the South China Sea by European powers such as Britain, Germany and France.

At the same time, although the US and China are planning high-level talks, both sides have declared in advance that they will not back down on issues such as Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Tibet. In Japan yesterday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken even declared that Taiwan is a “country”, which has made Kyle Bass, founder of the Wall Street giant “Hayman Capital Management L.P.”, believe that the US will “recognize Taiwan”. I personally believe that Bass’s claim is not unfounded, and it is highly likely that the recognition of Taiwan will be the best choice for the US and the world in their resistance to the CCP’s ambitions.

Xi Jinping and his acolytes have repeatedly threatened to bring about the military “unification” of Taiwan with China, while many American scholars and military experts have also predicted that, judging by the CCP’s continued build-up of its military capabilities, a war will break out in the Taiwan Strait within a few years. If this is an unavoidable development, it will be better for the US, which will have to intervene in a Taiwan Strait war in order to maintain its interests in the Western Pacific, to recognize Taiwan as a country before it is too late rather than let Taiwan remain unrecognized internationally (which will allow the CCP to continue to claim that its war against Taiwan is an “internal affair”).

The recognition of Taiwan will send a message to the CCP, as deterrence, that “the US supports Taiwan”. Furthermore, if war does break out, it will not be an internal affair for China anymore but an international conflict.

Currently, the US enjoys an economic and military advantage over China, while Taiwan – especially its achievements in high technology - plays a pivotal role in the US’s global leadership. The spread of the pandemic has made this point clear to the world. Many experts have warned that if Taiwan is subjugated by China and its world-leading wafer industry is taken over by China, it will only be a matter of time before the CCP becomes a global hegemony. If the US is unable to gain an upper hand in the Taiwan Strait issue when the CCP’s military is still at a disadvantage, it will be easier for the CCP to attack Taiwan when its power is fully-fledged. The cost will be higher for the US if it wants to respond to the CCP’s actions in the Taiwan Strait.

I believe the political elites of the US government have clearly recognized that point, and this should be why US government officials have been trying to strengthen ties with the US’s Asian allies in recent days and have stepped up military deployment in the Western Pacific. In every aspect, things are moving in the direction Bass has predicted – it is extremely likely for the US to recognize Taiwan shortly. If that happens, it will have been driven by Xi Jinping’s regime itself rather than the “external forces” as claimed by the CCP.

Regardless of the real purpose of the Xi regime’s constant talk about the military “unification” of Taiwan with China (some say it is aimed at diverting attention from domestic political pressures), its arbitrary oppression of Hong Kong’s democracy and ethnic cleansing in Xinjiang and Tibet have heightened the vigilance of the world’s democratic countries, so much so that they dare not take the Taiwan Strait issue lightly anymore. This will accelerate the international recognition of Taiwan. The CCP’s attempt to bring Taiwan to heel through military intimidation and prevent international interference in Taiwan Strait affairs might backfire in the end.

(Hsu Yu-fang is a professor at National Dong Hwa University)

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