China needs more than a boost in domestic consumption to sustain growth: economist

蘋果日報 2020/12/14 06:57


The Chinese government’s reforms aimed at boosting domestic demand won’t be enough to generate sustainable economic growth, according to a former chief economist at Shanghai-based Bank of Communications.
The reforms were among key economic plans for the next year unveiled Friday at an annual top-level meeting of Chinese Politburo leaders.
China will also need to increase exports and investment in order to attain double-digit growth in gross domestic product, Law Ka-chung told Apple Daily.
Economies that rely heavily on domestic consumption are doomed to low rates of growth. Without strong exports and investment, China will follow Japan’s economic decline, Law said.
“If [China] wants to stimulate consumption, a more even distribution of personal income would help. But 600 million of the 1.4 billion people in China are earning just 1,000 yuan” (US$153) a month, Law said. “They have no money to spend.”
Any redistribution of wealth will be a difficult political task in China. “It requires outstanding political skills,” he said.
The demand-side reform will involve breaking bottlenecks, smoothing processes from production, distribution to consumption of goods in order to form a high-level dynamic balance in which demand and supply create each other in turn, according to a report on the meeting.
The reform marks a U-turn on previous supply-side reforms to address problems caused by the country’s overproduction, said Beijing-based political commentator Wu Qiang. It also aims to support the development of the so-called “dual circulation” of the economy, Wu said.
Beside the demand-side reform, the Party leaders’ also pledged to combat monopolies also drew the spotlight from mainland media.
But the prospect of restrictions on leading companies came as no surprise to some mainland entrepreneurs who told Taiwan’s Central News Agency that the suspension of Ant Group’s listing last month had already shown the Party’s inclinations.
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