The Straits Forum on cross-strait issues is set to take place in Xiamen tomorrow. The Kuomintang (KMT) originally planned to send the former president of Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan Wang Jin-pyng to lead the party’s delegation. However, the Chinese state media CCTV flagship program “Cross Strait” hosted by Li Hong ridiculed that “this person is coming to the mainland to sue for peace.” The condescending comment caused strong dissatisfaction within the KMT and Taiwan. Li has not apologized for the “seek peace” comment. Consequently, the KMT announced yesterday that the party will no longer send a delegation to participate in this year’s forum and any individual members who attend would not be representing the party, instead be participating as Taiwanese businessmen. Although Li Hong may not have brought disaster to the nation with a single statement, the effect of bringing disaster to the cross-strait relations is very obvious.

Surely, even if Wang does attend the forum, the current turmoil between the two sides of the strait will not suddenly improve. As one of the few heavyweights in Taiwan who possesses the capacity to roam the pan-Blue and pan-Green coalitions, Wang’s ability to convey messages to different stakeholders cannot be easily replaced by any ordinary Taiwanese businessmen. Not only will Wang’s absence from the forum be a loss for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), but also an opportunity loss for Tsai Yin-wen to test the mainland. The incident also reflects the failure of China’s Taiwan policy; this failure is entirely built upon an illusion created by the CCP.

Li Hong’s “beg for peace” comment triggered a backlash within the ruling and opposition parties in Taiwan; meanwhile, on mainland’s Weibo, many little pink and 50 cent gang supported Li, saying that there is no need for an apology, in fact, that the KMT “is basically coming to beg.” The KMT is regarded as pro-communists by opponents in Taiwan. However, in the eyes of China’s nationalistic fenqing, or angry young men and women, the KMT is just here to beg for a “Taiwan benefit policy.” Even the Taiwan Affairs Office that looks awfully wolf warrior to the outside world has been jeered by the fenqing as the “Kowtow to Taiwan Office.” The difference in cognition that seems to be from a parallel universe has become the key to the CCP’s awkward Taiwan policy.

In the CCP’s Taiwan-related internal propaganda, in order to ensure a firm grasp on China’s right to speak, the CCP strives to censor anything to do with the Republic of China and packages any noises from Taiwan that do not resonate with the CCP as “Taiwan independence.” For this reason, the CCP has always only mentioned “one China” but never “respective interpretations.” It even took a step forward to advocate one country, two systems. However, the KMT opposes one country, two systems, as well as the reunification led by the CCP. In the eyes of the fenqing who have been under prolonged brainwash by the CCP, it is naturally untrustworthy support for cross-strait reunification but really support for independence in disguise.

On the other hand, the CCP is making every effort to portray Taiwan as weak and poor. State media such as CCTV and Cross-Strait Television, which is dedicated to Taiwan Strait news, have often widely reported negative news about Taiwan. The contents cover politics, economy and people’s livelihoods from the squabbles of the Legislative Yuan to the 22,000 Taiwan dollars (equivalent to US$ 750) monthly income of college students. This kind of propaganda is undeniably very different from the reality in Taiwan. In fact, the GDP per capita in Taiwan is about three times that of the mainland. Nevertheless, under the CCP’s overwhelming propaganda of the “rise of great powers,” and many people’s livelihoods have indeed visibly improved after the reform, such cognition is easily accepted by the mainland people who cannot access the truth, creating the illusion that the mainland is prosperous and strong while Taiwan is poor and feeble. Under this misconception, the people of Taiwan must rely on the mainland to survive and the KMT of course are just here to “beg.”

Since both the KMT and the Democratic Progressive Party are pro-independent and given that Taiwan is poor and weak, then why should the “risen” China allow the “Taiwan independence forces” to go unchecked? This mentality is the key to the increasing voices to urge reunification by military force. The problem is that this is based on illusion rather than reality. The CCP can only take a pragmatic approach on cross-strait issues because this is not true. However, the CCP’s pragmatic behavior is obviously different from its propaganda. Because of the discrepancy between illusion and reality, the “Taiwan benefit policy” endorsed by the Taiwan Affairs Office is regarded as weak and “kowtowing.” After all, the motherland is so powerful, why should money be sent to the “Taiwan independence forces”?

It is precisely the awkwardness of not being able to self justify, the CCP is hijacked by the illusion it has created. The CCP regards itself as a national defender that essentially cannot be “weak” on issues of “national interest.” For this reason, it can only take a tough stance against Taiwan and support Li Hong’s remark. However, the toughness needed for internal propaganda completely contradicts the softness required for foreign exchanges. If the CCP insists on being rigid, it will naturally offend the other party; if it stoops down, it is afraid of being accused as treacherous at home. Under this cumbersome situation, the CCP has often chosen the former for the sake of political stability, and this is how the wolf warrior diplomacy has been cultivated. Yet, how can true relations be established when the wolf warrior is constantly on the loose. The result will inevitably be counterproductive as the other party will find the wolf despicable and the CCP will find itself more isolated. The same holds true for the CCP policies towards Taiwan, Hong Kong, and the world. When Xi Jinping broke his promises in the Sino-US trade agreement, it was plainly because of CCP’s nationalistic propaganda that he was holding the wolf by the ears and afraid to be “another Li Hongzhang,” the leading diplomat of the late Qing era. This contradiction between illusion and reality is the key to the complete failure of the CCP’s foreign policy.

(Lam Hoi is a media worker)

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