As many have predicted before the U.S. presidential change, the China-U.S. relations would not change a great deal because of the new occupier of the White House. After the fiery exchange of words between Blinken and Yang Jiechi in Alaska, the confrontation between Beijing and the West has spread to Japan and western Europe. Suddenly, Japan or Europe joining China to fight against the U.S. no longer seems so feasible. Beijing has a limited choice of strategic support apart from Russia. The global trade triangle of China-U.S.-Europe and the strategic triangle of China-U.S.-Russia have formed a two vs. two square matrix. We can say a new world competition with China and the U.S. as the core has gradually taken shape. Beijing adopts the tactic of “keeping the east and attacking the west” in the general trend and hopes to use the geographical advantage of Russia stretching across Europe and Asia.

As Blinken said, the U.S., with its allies in Europe and Asia, accounts for about 60% of global GDP. It is obviously more superior than China and Russia add together. It is worth noting that Russia is on the same level as South Korea, Guangdong province, or Spain in terms of economic quantity. That is why the new Secretary of State has the confidence to say, “the U.S. won’t force allies into an “us-or-them” choice with China.” To be fair, the China and EU created the Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI) because Trump instigated global trade. Therefore, when Biden and Blinken decided to focus their diplomatic strategy on alliance support, both China and the EU must review the above agreement.

The EU can again assess its role in the new situation between China and the U.S. If Biden allows more room to work together, and it uses human rights disputes as the reason to amend, postpone or even withdraw its agreement with China, it might be able to get more long-term and secure economic profits in return. The problem is, Europe does not equate to the EU, which is not so unbreakable internally. Blinken, a more professional and experienced diplomat than Pompeo and has a thorough understanding of the situation in Europe, knows that he has to be patient and confident enough. Otherwise, he would push all the strong nations in western Europe back to the arms of Beijing like in Trump’s era.

Some small Baltic states have indeed withdrawn from the China and Eastern Europe cooperation mechanism. But the relationship between Beijing and the core countries of Eastern Europe – Poland, the Czech Republic, and Hungary has been stable in recent years. Even the Austrian Prime Minister, considered far-right, has not been as tough on China as he was some years ago. Eastern Europe, a strategic place for the East vs. West confrontation, has smooth relations with China. Besides, many Southeast European countries have either not yet joined the EU or the Eurozone or been in a tense relationship with Brussels and Berlin because of budget balance issues. That is why the Southeast European countries tend to participate more in the One Belt One Road initiative. Small countries like Greece and Serbia even put more and more focus on their economic, trade, and infrastructure cooperation with China.

The above shows that it is fundamentally difficult for the EU or European countries to form a strong power together in the diplomatic arena, even without Beijing trying to break each country down one by one or Washington forcing its allies to take sides. It is one thing that the U.S. and Europe join forces to put pressure on China on human rights issues, but whether they can be decisive and act quickly in economic and trade issues is another. After all, the EU is not a sovereign state like the U.S., China, and Russia. Washington has different strategic considerations than Paris and Berlin, which reduced the effectiveness of the West containing China and Russia. On the contrary, if Beijing and Moscow keep France and Germany in check, the EU strategy will be more balanced and not completely side with the U.S.

When Biden took office, and Blinken took charge of the Department of State, it has reinforced the transatlantic alliance, which will help to hinder the power of China and Russia from further developing, but still not gain an overwhelming advantage. Also, the Prime Minister, Minister of Foreign Affairs, and Minister of Defense of Japan have all talked about the security situation in East Asia on different occasions. It is a much more sensitive topic than the Xinjiang debate as it involves the future role of the Japan-U.S. alliance in the war of Taiwan Strait. In addition to what was said by the ministers, supporting the U.S. military to help to defend Taiwan will not just be one of the tasks of the Japan Self-Defense Forces but will be their core task.

But whether it is the future assessment of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) or the Pentagon, the military strength outside China and the U.S. will be taken into count. The Russian army and Japan Self-Defense Forces have always been and will continue to be playing an important role in history. The U.S. has a strong and huge military force, and the Japan Self-Defense Forces are small but of the best quality. However, the cooperation of China and Russia would not only be more superior in size but also has a geographical advantage. Japan is near China and Russia; the country is long and narrow and lacks depth. If the war on Taiwan Strait is of a small scale, Japan might be able to defend the PLA’s invasion at the south-west corner. If the war spread and the Russian army descends down south by sea and from land, it would severely stretch the combat power of the Self-Defense Forces. By then, Japan would have trouble protecting itself, let alone helping the U.S. to defend Taiwan.

There was a purpose when the Russian Foreign Minister visiting China and meeting Wang Yi and Co.: to put pressure on Japan and the EU. The relationship between China and Russia has been elusive, a lot has been said, but little has been done. Now, being pressurized by the U.S., Europe, and Japan, Beijing and Moscow might deepen their strategic cooperation, even though they still might not get to the level of being allies like those in the West. Apart from East Asia, the China-Russia cooperation can also include West and Central Asia. The initial consensus on the foreign strategy of the Democrat leaders such as Obama, Biden, and Hillary Clinton was military withdrawal from the Middle East and Afghanistan. The “pivot to Asia” and to seek “re-balance to Asia” might well be Biden’s original idea and not him continuing Obama’s strategic thinking of shifting more weight to the East from the West.

Biden, Blinken, and Austin might not completely give up the Middle East but will pay much less attention to it than the Republicans, especially Trump, as the two parties have totally different energy policies. Obama and Biden strongly advocate emission reduction emissions and new energy source development and wanting to transform the U.S. into an oil and natural gas exporting country. Many regional and world powers are curious about Biden’s stance on the Iran-Saudi Arabia issue as the Democrats entered the White House after a four-year break. When China and Russia are ready to bear the pressure from the western countries in the “West Pacific-East Indian Ocean” region, they would have more reason to extend to the “Persian Gulf-Eastern Mediterranean Sea” line.

Given the above, Beijing’s repeat emphasis on having support from Riyadh on the Xinjiang problem is not purely to look for international support on religious and ethnic issues but with obvious geostrategic orientation.

(Hui Ching, Research Director of Hong Kong Zhi Ming Institute)

Click here for Chinese version

We invite you to join the conversation by submitting columns to our opinion section: [email protected]

Apple Daily reserves the right to refuse, abridge, alter or edit guest opinion columns for accuracy, length, clarity, and style, and the right to withdraw and withhold columns based on the discretion of our editorial page editors.

The opinions of the writers do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the editorial board.

---------------------------------

Apple Daily’s all-new English Edition is now available on the mobile app: bit.ly/2yMMfQE

To download the latest version,

iOS: bit.ly/AD_iOS

Android: bit.ly/AD_android

Or search Appledaily in App Store or Google Play