The Guardian reported earlier that the Centre for Economics and Business Research in the UK estimated China would replace the US as the largest economy in the world by 2080, five years earlier than what the same institution had expected. Having delved into the economic growth rates of 193 countries, the Centre concluded that while China’s economy revives rapidly after the coronavirus epidemic, the US is dragged down by the plague; under the situation that one waxes while the other wanes, the gap between the scales of the two economies would be narrowed. The Centre anticipated the average annual economic growth rate of China being 5.7% between 2012 and 2015, and 4.5% between 2026 and 2030. As to the US, the Centre expected its economy to pick up sharply from 2021 onward, but the annual growth rate to slow down to 1.9% between 2022 and 2024, then even further to 1.6%. Meanwhile, the Central Economic Work Conference held by the Chinese Communist Party(CCP) reckoned that with Xi Jinping at the helm in person, the expeditious economic revival achieved after Wuhan pneumonia is a feat that would be written into the annals of history.

While the entire world is suffering torments of another wave of mutant virus, the CCP is confronting the pandemic with “warlike thoughts”, leveraging the pneumonia that is wreaking havoc all over the world to show off with the superiority of the CCP model that maintains its economic growth. As long as Japan and the developed industrial countries in the west keep on enduring hardships brought about by the coronavirus and being unable to restore their economic activities, the CCP enjoys “the uniquely outstanding scenery” in China. Sparing no effort in containing the infection with vaccine, the UK, US and European Union are expecting the crucial moments in the three months ahead. If most of their vaccinated nationals are immune against the disease and the number of allergy cases is within what is reasonably forecast, the economic activities can be brought to life again right away.

In terms of ascendency of economic recovery all around the globe, the crux of the matter for the time being is whether the coronavirus epidemic is under control, which hinges on technological innovation rather than productivity, so the advantageous position enjoyed by China is transient. In the eyes of the western countries, the CCP being smug about its achievement at the Central Economic Work Conference is beyond dispute to gloat over their mishap, which, however, in the meantime, puts the western world on alert to the fact that it could be the “turning point” of the future economic wrestle across the world. Sustainability of economic growth is driven by either opening up of markets or technological reforms. While the opening up of markets in China has been stagnant for years and the CCP has been turning the clock back to old times to get the country preoccupied by politics and lay emphasis on the party’s absolute leadership, the private enterprises active in the realm of technology have been transforming into corporates akin to the government-supervised and merchant-managed during the Self-Strengthening Movement in the late Qing dynasty. The economic growth of the CCP benefits from as well as being driven by technological application, but technological application is a far cry from technological innovation. Moreover, the clash between the single-party state and technological reform, inclusive of application, is getting more and more severe. The Ant Group given an overhaul is a good example.

The next wave of technological revolution has already crept into the scene: artificial intelligence, automation, decentralization in business models. But after Wuhan pneumonia pandemic, the western world will be warier of transference of technology. The US will zero in on curtailing CCP’s production and independent R&D of chips, which is already lagging behind the world. In the war over chips production, the US is bound to hit where it hurts. In view of the fact microchips have a wide range of applications and automation is where productivity revolution lies, how can automated androids work without chips? Now that the CCP has held the Ant Group back from being listed and dealt a blow to Alibaba with antitrust laws, one can see from small clues how things will develop in three to five years when blockchain technology is not confined to Bitcoin but widely applied in finance, retail and communications industry. How can an authoritarian polity that makes much of putting everything under the centralized control of the party get on with the new era of decentralized blockchains? Since the end of the Cold War, technological innovations in the west have ushered in a worldwide information revolution. With the help of the western technology enterprises, the CCP has developed a digital surveillance system for a dictatorial society, transforming the liberated power in the society brought about by technological reform into a governing tool, which is not what the western countries could have foreseen.

Even though currently the western countries are being tortured by the coronavirus pandemic, it is an underestimation of what impact Wuhan pneumonia would make on international politics if it is said with certainty that the US is on the wane and would be replaced by the CCP. After the western world “slams the door” in CCP’s face, can speedy economic growth still be materialized with the inner circulation and “independent R&D”?

(Lau Sai Leung, political commentator)

Click here for Chinese version

We invite you to join the conversation by submitting columns to our opinion section: [email protected]

Apple Daily reserves the right to refuse, abridge, alter or edit guest opinion columns for accuracy, length, clarity, and style, and the right to withdraw and withhold columns based on the discretion of our editorial page editors.

The opinions of the writers do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the editorial board.

---------------------------------

Apple Daily’s all-new English Edition is now available on the mobile app: bit.ly/2yMMfQE

To download the latest version,

iOS: bit.ly/AD_iOS

Android: bit.ly/AD_android

Or search Appledaily in App Store or Google Play