Following the removal from office of the Mayor of Kaohsiung, Han Kuoyu, with votes of record-high, a by-election will be held in August. At present, the Democratic Progressive Party(DPP) has officially nominated Chen Chimai, the former Vice Premier of the Executive Yuan for the race. Jane Lee, a city councilor, has been nominated by the Kuomintang(KMT), while the Taiwan People’s Party(TPP) is to ‘borrow’ Wu Yizheng, another city councilor, from the People First Party. With the support for Chen confirmed by two smaller parties, the New Power Party and Taiwan Statebuilding Party, the situation in this by-election has thus become relatively clear.

This by-election has been the fourth election campaign in Kaohsiung in two years. The populist ‘Han’ style election campaign sprang up in the grassroot elections in Kaohsiung in 2018. By 2020, such a style quickly went sour. The trend continued to recede rapidly in the presidential election early in the year and the mayor's recall in June. After the impact of the Han incident, sectoral shifts amongst the political parties have apparently begun in the city. In this by-election, the DPP will be cautiously optimistic. Having woken up from an impossible dream, the KMT will work very hard to regain power. The TPP will try to gain ground amid all the chaos. On the whole, the DPP is determined to reclaim Kaohsiung, while the KMT and the TPP will have their minds on a long-term goal in 2022, or even further in the future.
For the DPP, losing Kaohsiung was a big wake-up call. It suggested that there are more and more independent voters in Kaohsiung that do not necessarily vote for nobody else but the Green. Their numbers are significant enough to influence the election outcome. The successful ousting of Han is proof that the decisions of these independent voters are critical.

The Green as a challenger wins over independent voters

Before the counties and cities were merged into the city of Kaohsiung, the DPP had been in power in the old counties since the days of Yu Chen Yueying in 1985. In the city area, Frank Hsieh Changting won the election in 1998 and remained in power until 2018. In other words, the DPP had been in power for 33 years in the county, and 20 years in the city area. As the city of Kaohsiung came into being, Tan Kiok won a record 990,000 votes in the second election. In the minds of the general electorate, Kaohsiung is an invincible stronghold of the DPP.

However, in 2018, Chen Chimai, who had been working tirelessly in Kaohsiung through the years, and consciously groomed by the DPP for one of the future leaders, was unexpectedly defeated by Han Kuoyu, who landed from elsewhere, with no knowledge of Kaohsiung, and without any concrete vision of governance. Just one and a half years later, Han was dismissed by an even higher number of votes. Evidently, in the current election in Kaohsiung, the outcome will not be decided by the base voters alone. Winning over the hearts of the independent voters will be essential.

Having fallen once before, Chen Chimai of the DPP must in his comeback change his mindset that the DPP has a ruling advantage in Kaohsiung. Moreover, in addition to consolidating the base voters, he should consider himself as ‘an outsider’ or ‘a challenger’ trying to win over the independent votes that did not go for the DPP in 2018. Without the blessing of the independent voters, winning the election may merely be seen as leveraging the knock-on effect of Han’s removal, not as the determination and courage to rebuild in Kaohsiung.

For the KMT, Han’s victory in 2018 turned out to be too good a dream. The victory, which went like a dream, yet unrealistic, was not capitalized by the KMT as the opportunity to reclaim Kaohsiung. Instead, the KMT tried to replicate the populist campaign style in the presidential election, resulting in even greater defeat. Not only did the KMT lose both the presidential and the Legislative Yuan elections, Kaohsiung also saw its first ever mayor to be removed from office in history. The damage consequential to the ‘Han’ incident suffered by the KMT has been lingering on to this day.

The Blue nominations are superficial and without vision

During the consultation for the by-election candidates, the KMT constantly emphasized ‘young and local’. The KMT apparently did not put the long-term planning and vision for Kaohsiung into the equation. To make matters worse, several hopefuls would remind one of Han. Jane Lee, who has finally been nominated, is a councilor with a close relationship with Han. Being a young female may be a bonus. Fundamentally the candidate should possess the potential and the qualities to realize the visions and the sense of being for the city. To make a comeback in Kaohsiung with commitment and drive, being ‘young and local’ remains superficial after all.

Lastly, the TPP. Ever since the intention of Blue-White cooperation was made known, the strategy of the TPP in this by-election has been clear – win over the votes that once went to Han, cast by those not so blue voters. Judging from the electoral swing in several elections, there are around 200,000 of such voters. If these votes are won over, it will be a very favorable start for the TPP come 2022.

The White wants to woo the Light Blue and the Third Force

Not only that, Wu Yizheng is a member of the PFP. As the PFP is turning into a bubble, more supporters of this party can be lured during the by-election, thus consolidating and expanding the base of the TPP in Kaohsiung.

Although the DPP hopes to succeed with minimum risks, winning more support from independent voters remains a challenge. The KMT, which has yet to put its act together after the Han impact, looks an unlikely winner. Keeping afloat is the goal. As the sectoral shifts of parties take place, the TPP wants to win over the Light Blue as well as supporters of the PFP. Whether they will succeed in creating the Third Force will be the challenge for the party in this by-election. Three parties in one by-election, all have their own calculations and targets. It is, after all, up to the voters.

(Professor Shen Yuchung, Department of Politics, Tunghai University and Chairperson of the Association for Asian Political Economy and Peace)

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