The White House issued a press release on December 27, stating that US president Donald Trump had signed the Taiwan Assurance Act of 2020 into law. The act confirms Taiwan’s status as a vital part of the free and open Indo-Pacific strategy that the US advocates. It also indicates the US government’s support for the normalization of arms sales to Taiwan and other strategies that strengthen ties between the two nations. Additionally, the US will set aside US$3 million for the Global Cooperation and Training Framework between Taiwan, the US and Japan, which has been in place since 2015. This framework aims to offer a platform where Taiwan can contribute to international issues in response to China’s suppression of Taiwan’s participation in international bodies. It has helped expand the three nations’ cooperation and exchanges with countries with shared values.

As Donald Trump will soon leave office, people are concerned about whether the new occupant of the White House, Joe Biden, will change the hardline, active anti-China policies of his predecessor or even affect the improving Taiwan-US relations. Joe Biden has recently revealed more of his thoughts on his China policies.

Joe Biden reiterated on the 28th of this month that the US will work together with allies with similar values to defend their shared interests and values when facing US-China conflicts in the areas of trade, technology, and human rights. As observers have predicted, Biden has confirmed that the general situation of US-China rivalry will continue. However, the US’s policies towards China will be adjusted, with a particular focus on restoring the previous international order and lining up the US’s allies.

From the perspective of national power, the gap between the US and China is narrowing. While the US’s hegemony is in decline, China’s strength is on the rise. A preliminary evaluation of the two countries’ economic and military power based on their GDPs and military budgets shows that China’s economic and military strength accounted for 4% and 3% of the world in 2000, while the US’s percentages were 31% and 43% respectively. By 2019, China’s shares had risen to 16% and 14%, while the US’s had slightly decreased to 24% and 39%. While the figures show that the US still holds an advantage, the long-term trend is that the gap in national strength between the two countries is narrowing, and the US is losing its advantage as a global hegemony.

In the past, the US enjoyed advantages in security, economics, and every area, which allow it to fight battles alone. Without having to cooperate with allies, it was able to force its adversaries to give in. However, the international landscape has changed from the US’s sole dominance to US-China dual hegemony. It is now difficult for the US to force China to change course with its might alone, as China, a rising power, has become confident about its ability to compete with the US and has even begun to lead and shape a new international order. Their confrontations in the international arena have become increasingly blunt, and they concern not only the two nations, but also the different global orders, norms, and values that they represent.

Covid-19 has brought about a bleaker global outlook. Not only has it impacted the countries’ economies, but cross-border transmission has also escalated the suspicion and hostility between governments and citizens. Countries have built up barriers, while severely affected countries have only been able to focus on domestic outbreaks rather than devote attention to international affairs. As a result, the international community becomes increasingly out of order, and countries could become increasingly conservative in their foreign policies, while mutual trust between countries could decline. Furthermore, the uncertainty of the situation in the future will escalate, and a new wave of protectionist and isolationist ideologies could arise. Under such circumstances, it will absolutely not be an easy task for Biden to contain China through cooperating with countries that share similar values.

First, the US under Trump’s leadership has withdrawn itself from the Paris Accord, the World Health Organization, UNESCO, the United Nations Human Rights Council and the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), and he has denigrated NATO and the World Trade Organization. Biden is aware that it is necessary for the US to return to these organizations if it is to regain a say, make use of its existing strength to handle matters among different organizations and issues, and make policy exchanges with its partners. However, if Biden wants the US to return to these multilateral organizations, it will partly depend on whether the return will have enough political support domestically. As far as Congress is concerned, Biden does not enjoy too big an advantage, and his attempt to overturn Trump’s policies might be opposed by the Republican Party.

Secondly, in an international community that is highly anarchic, it is easy for international organizations to become the tools that serve major powers, meaning that they will have limited functions. Trump withdrew the US from the multilateral system exactly on the grounds that it cannot serve the US’s national interests. Worse still, when it comes to certain issues, China currently has an immense influence on many important international organizations. In other words, the multilateral system that Biden wants to return to might be one where the gap the US left behind has been filled by China. If the US wants to rely on this system and becomes a model nation that is gentle, rational and moderate, it might have difficulties contending with China in such a multilateral system.

Lastly, when the US wants to contend with today’s China, the key to success, as Biden himself has said, will be a league of nations with shared ideals. But in reality, that objective will be the hardest to achieve. Containing China comes at a cost. If the US’s strength is not enough to enable it to foot the bill for its potential allies, or if it is unable to absorb the cost for its allies, then all countries will definitely think twice when they are facing the economic impacts brought about by the pandemic. The US has an even greater need to promote an anti-China sentiment in every international organization and take the lead to fire the opening salvo against China at all costs. Only by doing so can nations with shared ideals be assured of the legitimacy of the containment of China and that the US is for real.

The Taiwan Presidential Office has repeatedly stressed that Taiwan and the US are staunch allies that share the values of freedom and democracy, so Taiwan should be one of the countries that Biden has referred to as countries with shared values. Although riding the US’s anti-China bandwagon is in the national interest of Taiwan, it must realize that the bandwagon will not have an easy ride. It is necessary for Taiwan to face the challenges and opportunities together with the US on the journey and adjust to the situations accordingly.

(Ian Chen Tsung-yen, Assistant Professor, Institute of Political Science, National Sun Yat-sen University)

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