With Chinese military aircraft and battleships frequently harassing Taiwan, the crisis in the peripheral waters and aerial zones of the island is unprecedentedly intense. In light of Cross-Strait military conflicts being on the verge of breaking out, not only Taiwanese people are put under strain, but also the international community is concerned about a military confrontation to take place. Once it happens, it will not be confined to the Cross-Strait, but the U.S., Japan and countries around the Strait will also be embroiled in the warfare. What everyone is worried about is what Taiwan should do amidst an ominous sign of war.

There is a theory that suggests a war engaging Taiwan can be prevented and Cross-Strait peace is possible only if we stop short of riling and maintain a good relationship with China. Ma Ying-jeou, the leading representative of this viewpoint, has called on the Taiwan government time and again to hold firm to the “92 consensus”, and warned that if the agreement is dismissed, the island will “suffer millions of casualties”. Coincidentally, PRC State Council Office for Taiwan Affairs(SCOTA) has recently released the “92 consensus Q&A”, echoing what Ma has been advocating. Some are of the opinion that the SCOTA did so to alleviate the Cross-Strait military tension. On the contrary, I am convinced it is just a means of achieving united front with the aim of dividing the Taiwan society by approving of what Ma has been promoting.

How can Cross-Strait peace be attained? Can recognition for the “92 consensus” bring about peace? I’m afraid not. As that the Chinese Communist Party(CCP) annexes Taiwan is already decided, no CCP leaders dare to say no to unifying with Taiwan. Ma Ying-jeou and others of his ilk believe Taiwan pertains to “one China”, so that separation of governments across the Strait and peaceful coexistence can be materialized. But it is just so naïve of them to think so. The essential elements of CCP forcefully unifying with Taiwan encompass Taiwan perpetually putting off the unification. Even if Taiwan acknowledges the “one China” principle, it will have to negotiate with the CCP before the latter loses patience. It is hardly possible that separation of governments cross the Strait and the status quo are to be maintained for good. Some time or the other, Taiwan will be pressed to “negotiate over the great undertaking of unification” with the CCP.

For the CCP, unifying with Taiwan is of paramount importance in “the great undertaking of reviving the Chinese nation”. Regardless of what Ma and others of his ilk believe or do, Taiwan will be annexed by China in the end. If it occurs, it implies the end of the democracy. How do Taiwanese people view the loss of democracy and freedom? Polls have suggested many times that almost 70% Taiwanese people do not want to live under the CCP’s autocracy. The “92 consensus” will not usher peace to the Taiwan Strait, but only loosen up national defense and psychological preparation, paving the way for the CCP to annex Taiwan.

Does this mean that peace in the Taiwan Strait cannot be attained, and a war in the Cross-Strait is unavoidable? Not necessarily. Preventing a war from breaking out by all means is the highest principle every person or party in power should uphold. Small in size yet densely populated, Taiwan will suffer heavy casualties in a war of any size. Though the rulers are legally and morally responsible for protecting people’s lives and properties, it does not mean they have to lie down under military threats from China. In fact, the only way to stop China from attacking is to boost the price for invading Taiwan with armed might to an unreachable level. If Taiwan’s national defense was feeble, certainly the CCP would not only despatch military aircraft and battleships to harass the island, but wage war on Taiwan without hesitation. Moreover, the morale of Taiwanese people is also essential. Taiwan is not able to protect itself with only national defense yet without national solidarity,.

Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Joseph Wu has recently pointed out in an interview given to NPR from the U.S. that Taiwan is not seeking full diplomatic relations with the U.S. at this moment, but rather strengthening of various substantial relations. He also indicated that if a war breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, Taiwan will take the responsibility for defending itself, instead of relying on support from the U.S.. These two points are interpreted differently. The saying of not seeking full diplomatic relations with the U.S. is definitely to mitigate the Cross-Strait tension. The CCP has reiterated many times that once a diplomatic relation between Taiwan and the U.S. is established, it will surely attack the island. Time is with Taiwan, hence military confrontation with China not necessary. The remarks of not relying on support from the U.S. are for Americans, who are put off by countries reluctant to strengthen their armaments for self-denfense, but looking for protection from the U.S.. I hold the view that President Tsai Ing-wen, who has been making every effort to steer clear of a war so that Americans will not find it off-putting if Taiwan asks for help from the U.S., has been striking a balance well.

Time is really with Taiwan. If endurable peace can be maintained, the fall of the CCP will be possible, and a democratic China will not only be a fantasy story. Once China is democratized, everything is easy to handle. Not only is a war impossible, but the best way to settle the Cross-Strait issue by negotiations will also be in sight.

(Houng Yu-Houng, honorary professor of National Yang Ming University)

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