Today, the U.S will welcome its 46th president, Joe Biden, but the bipartisan consensus on Washington’s anti-China stance has long been in place and will not change because of this. What has been reiterated over and over again is that in a democratic system, there are checks and balances on the power of the U.S. president. Besides, the president is important, but even more important are the people behind him. These people are the key to understanding the next four years of U.S.-China relations and Washington’s strategic deployment to the Asia Pacific region.

Let’s first talk about the Secretary of State. Just as the hawkish Mike Pompeo was the heart of the anti-China effort in the Trump era, Antony Blinken, Biden’s nominee for Secretary of State, should be the one to keep an eye on. In 2019, Blinken and senior fellow at the Brookings Institution Robert Kagan wrote an article for the Washington Post on foreign policy, whose philosophy can be summed up in two terms: “preventive diplomacy and military deterrence.”

In short, it advocates that the U.S. spearheads global affairs in cooperation with its allies in the international arena. The main strategy in countering threats to national security is to increase deterrence by the U.S. and its military alliance. As an interventionist, Blinken was inclined to engage the U.S. more in the affairs of other countries and pursued the strategy that diplomacy must be supplemented by deterrence.

But perhaps more noteworthy is Biden’s creation of a coordinator for the Indo-Pacific region at the White House National Security Council. Kurt Campbell, former assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific Affairs in the Obama administration, has been named to serve as the newly created role of “Asia tsar” for Asia-Pacific affairs. In addition to reflecting the new administration’s seriousness about U.S.-China relations, this move is also expected to be a response to Beijing’s hybrid tactics of wolf warrior diplomacy and drifting through gray areas in recent years.

As a hawkish Democrat, Campbell has always taken a hard-line stance on China. In an article published in Foreign Affairs two years ago, Campbell and Ely Ratner criticized past U.S. foreign policy mistakes. “Diplomatic and commercial engagement have not brought political and economic openness in China. Neither U.S. military power nor regional balancing has stopped Beijing from seeking to displace core components of the U.S.-led system.” His previously published article also foreshadowed the next top U.S. national security priorities - repairing the Trump era damage to the alliance system and the credibility of extended U.S. deterrence.

As a matter of fact, Campbell’s ideology is not only similar to Blinken’s but also coincides with that of Joe Biden’s incoming national security adviser Jake Sullivan. It is only after consolidating alliances that maximum collective leverage can be achieved, ensuring U.S. hegemony in the Indo-Pacific region and globally. And how do Blinken, Campbell and Sullivan feel about Hong Kong? In a nutshell, they support Hong Kong and advocate a tougher policy toward China in Washington.

Of course, international relations have always been a very complex and intricate game, and it would be rash to judge the good from the bad by looking at a single person or event.

Lloyd Austin, for example, has been questioned several times for not being tough enough on China, yet he was still tapped for Defense Secretary. It is true that Austin is a surprise to outsiders in view of the current tensions between China and the U.S., but if we look deeper into his past experience, it is easy to understand why Biden chose him for this position. For one thing, Austin has served as a corps commander in Afghanistan and Iraq, and has extensive combat experience with a solid understanding of the various organizations in the region. His appointment will help Biden to clean up the mess in the Middle East and to continue the fight against ISIS and other terrorists.

Secondly, it is to build a longer-term strategic coalition against Beijing in the Indo-Pacific theaters. According to media reports, Austin, who is known as “The Silent General,” is skilled in tactical planning and “strategic patience.” He may be the best commander for the forthcoming persistent hybrid war. If there were to be any kind of misfire in the Indo-Pacific region, Austin can lead a joint regional war at any time and would be the more appropriate person for Washington now.

You can only see more clearly when you take a longer view. Biden may not be the savior that everyone expects, but at least he is a meritocratic leader who is receptive to innovative concepts and embraces multilateralism. It is clear from his cabinet appointments that each one of them is purposeful and focused on the current problems - Ron Klain on epidemic management, Jennifer Granholm on global warming, and Antony Blinken on restoring alliances. Biden’s cabinet choices are revolutionary and unconventional, appointing women, people of different ethnic backgrounds and sexual orientations, thereby cleaning up the trend of not listening to advice during the Trump era. Looking at the global situation, there is reason to believe that Biden’s presidency will only make things better not worse for the U.S., the Asia-Pacific region and the world.

Of course, the people of Hong Kong, who are sandwiched in between, must be psychologically prepared that 2021 will not get better but worse. What comes after midnight is not dawn, but further darkness. How to endure the gloom and how to tread the shadows in the midst of endlessness are the most difficult but necessary issues for Hong Kong people.

(Lee Sze-fung, researcher at the Global Studies Institute Hong Kong)

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