With less than 50 days to go before US President-elect Joe Biden is sworn into the White House, the mainland Chinese government, led by Xi Jinping, has started to “plan ahead” in every part of the world, and has gained an early advantage. Of course, Biden is not standing idle. He is building alliances with those countries in the world that can be brought onto his side.

Carrying the banner of “multilateralism” and global cooperation, the mainland Chinese government has used the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) as its base. Judging that Biden will definitely join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) after he takes office, the mainland Chinese government has taken the initiative and expressed its intention to join it first.

Trying to show that they are ahead in the race, the Beijing authorities have sent officials to the European Union, ASEAN, Japan, South Korea and other countries to speed up the creation of a “free trade area between China, Japan and South Korea”. Obviously, China’s diplomatic policy is to seek the support of the EU, Japan, South Korea, and ASEAN nations in the hope that it will not lose ground when it contends with the US later.

Of course, the national security team of Biden’s new administration and the US’s allies in Europe are not to be trifled with. Facing China’s relentless and ferocious onslaughts around the world, it is expected that Biden will join the CPTPP as soon as possible, or even return to the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). He will also speed up the implementation of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), which has been in limbo for four years since Donald Trump’s withdrawal from it.

Without a doubt, the rivalry between the US and China over global free trade zones is all about gaining a say in the global economic and trade systems as well as the right to write the rules for economic and trade issues. Biden has nominated Janet Yellen and Cecilia Rouse to be the new Treasury Secretary and Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers respectively. His eyes are presumably on the US’s global economic and trade plans in the future.

EU nations are drafting a document calling on the building of an “anti-China alliance” between the US and EU member states so as to counter mainland China’s rapid, unrestrained rise with collective action and synergy.

Perhaps Biden, who inclines towards strengthening the US’s existing allies and alliances, does not intend to create such an “anti-China alliance”. But he can avail himself and take advantage of that opportunity to pressurize China into making concessions on human rights, freedom, democracy and other issues that concern universal values.

Therefore, while China might seem to have gained an early advantage, it is very likely that the US will overtake China from behind. The Beijing authorities know that China’s economic and trade strength is far behind that of the US, not to mention the fact that the US has the cooperation of the US. While China is planning ahead, it is actually treating “small losses as a victory”.

Biden’s national security team will also handle the mess left behind by the Trump administration’s string of “strategic withdrawals” in order to prevent a collapse of the arms control system, a vicious nuclear arms race, and an anarchic state in this area.

Facing a league of nations under the leadership of the US and ready to forge ahead anytime in their full fury, the mainland Chinese government is responding with a mix of hard and soft tactics that can be employed interchangeably. In the fifth plenary session held in late October, Xi Jinping stressed the need to use “dual (internal and external) circulation” to stimulate the national economy. He demanded that China’s technological industry “be self-sufficient” and be prepared for the worst scenario. These are the “hard tactics”, which show that China is definitely not giving in.

As for the “soft tactics”, Fu Ying, China’s former Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs and currently the vice chairwoman of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the National People’s Congress, wrote in the New York Times calling on the US and China to cooperate on strategic security, public health, climate change and digital security under the framework of multilateralism.

In the article, Fu presents the incentives for China-US cooperation to the Biden administration, at the same time pointing out the potential risks if the two sides do not cooperate. To put it simply, it is “mutual benefit if the two sides cooperate, and mutual harm if they are against each other”.

It is obvious that after Biden is sworn in as the 46th US president in 2021, the US and China, two major powers, will still have a competitive-yet-cooperative relationship. It is just that they will not be at loggerheads explicitly as they have been for the past four years. Instead they will be like swimming ducks whose feet move under the water – the competition is hidden.

(Edward I-hsin Chen is professor emeritus at the Department of Diplomacy and International Relations of Tamkang University)

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