China should not rule out firing first in the reunification war of Taiwan, an international relations scholar at Fudan University in Shanghai said.

Professor Shen Dingli’s commentary in the Communist Party’s hawkish Global Times tabloid is contrary to the position currently voiced by Beijing that mainland China would not attack first. However, with the prospect of any peaceful reunification with Taiwan diminishing, then the possibility that China would take the first shot should be considered, Shen said.

Shen said the stance of non-aggression should be conditional and based on China’s core interests as set out in the 2011 white paper on China’s Peaceful Development. These include state sovereignty, national security, territorial integrity and national reunification, China’s political system established by the constitution and overall social stability, as well as the basic safeguards for ensuring sustainable economic and social development.

Shen then laid out justifications for China firing first.

On state sovereignty, foreign warplanes have been conducting military surveillance missions in Chinese airspace, and China shouldn’t let its hands be tied in a non-aggression policy if that puts the nation’s military at risk, he said.

On national security, Shen said China should not rule out making a preemptive nuclear strike because its arsenal is at risk from precision attacks by the enemy using conventional weapons.

On territorial integrity, Shen said China must take lessons from the past: China’s Northeastern army refused to fire first when Manchuria declared independence with the support of the Japanese in the 1930s, and China today should not tolerate any foreign invasion.

On national reunification, Shen said although China wishes to reunify through peaceful means, it will not rule out using force as Taiwan independence groups are growing more influential.

On protecting the political system and social stability, Shen said the constitution did not bar the country from military action to counter efforts by enemy forces to create chaos in China.

China mustn’t become trapped by a doctrine of never attacking first, Shen said, pointing out that under United Nations rules, countries are legally permitted to launch military attacks when facing serious threats.

China should make a public pledge to exercise maximum restraint before taking the first shot, Shen said, but that it must not make a promise never to do so under any circumstance.

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