Vaccine diplomacy in Central Asia: why Moscow outperforms Beijing|Suen Chiu-kwan
Though Wuhan pneumonia has crippled the global economy, it has also provided superpowers with opportunities in diplomacy to draw other countries to one’s side with provision of vaccine. A commentary published by Nikkei Asia earlier on pointed out that Russia stays ahead of China in “vaccine diplomacy” in Central Asia. When this opinion piece being written, the registration of Russia’s “Sputnik V” vaccine has been approved already in four countries among the five in Central Asia. They are Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan, which have also been planning to procure and produce it on a large scale. Only Uzbekistan among them has approved the registration of China’s vaccine.
The Lancet made public a midterm report on phase-three clinical test of Russia’s vaccine earlier on. It shows the vaccine has 91.6% efficacy without severe side effects. Blessed by an authoritative medical journal, it is the first choice of most Central Asian countries for its affordable price(USD10/dose), transport and storage costs(ordinary fridge between 2 and 8 degree Celsius). Of course, political consideration given by Central Asian countries to being “pro-Russia and distanced from China” is also one of the reasons why it is popular in the region.
Balancing anti-China sentiments among the masses
Despite the five Central Asian countries substantially benefiting from the Belt and Road Initiative, they are concerned that anti-China sentiments will be stirred up if they are over-dependent on China. So, they distance themselves from China as much as they can, and confine their relationships with China to economic cooperation.
According to data compiled by the Oxus Society, 44 anti-China protests have broken out over the past three years in Central Asian countries. Not only did protesters oppose China for economic and Uighur issues, but they also vented their anger on the ruling class of their own countries working in collusion with Chinese meritocrats for personal gains.
Moreover, even though China has overtaken Russia in trade with Central Asian countries, the latter used to rule Central Asia for many years, hence having deep-rooted cultural foundation in the region. That’s why by and large, the peoples in Central Asia have more trust in Russia than China. According to an opinion poll by Central Asia Barometer, more than half of the populations in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, and up to 70% of the population in Kyrgyzstan trusted Russia’s vaccine. As such, leaders of Central Asian countries are bound to attach importance to anti-China sentiments among the masses. Meanwhile, it suggests that Russia’s soft power in Central Asia is still rock-steady.
With the peoples more confident in getting inoculated with the vaccine, it is expected as a matter of course that Central Asian countries prefer doses provided by Russia. Furthermore, owing to various political contexts in Central Asian countries, cooperation with China other than economic collaboration is extraordinarily sensitive, not least for Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.
For instance, in order to alleviate anti-China sentiments, Kazakhstan President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev launched a decree last month forever banning people from renting out and selling national farmland to foreigners in response to the decision to postpone amendment to the Land Law, the expiry date of which is nearing. It all stemmed from the government’s declaration of amendment to the Land Law in 2016 to extend the time-limit for foreigners to rent national farmland from 10 to 25 years, so that the coffers of the state could be benefited. As a result, a protest on the largest scale in recent years broke out for the people were worried that the land would be transferred to Chinese. In the end, the government was forced to put off the amendment till this year. It can be seen that it only takes a land issue to stir up anti-China sentiments. To steer clear of extra complications, the government insisted on staying away from China’s vaccine, importing and producing the one from Russia, or using QazCovid-in, locally researched and developed.
Sooronbay Jeenbekov, the new President of Kyrgyzstan, also upholds a conservative attitude towards China. In an interview by a media outlet last month, he showed concern for foreign debts in a high-profile manner, zeroing in on the huge debts the country owes China for refurbishing the power plant in the capital city. Most important of all, the power-station had been plagued with glitches ever since its completion, which escalated anti-China sentiments among the crowds. In addition, traditional Kyrgyzstan-Russian relations were on the rocks for Putin said Jeenbekov taking the helm of the country was a “mishap”. To strive for Putin’s trust in him, Jeenbekov wrote a newspaper article, which he rarely does, to curry favor with Russia earlier on, as well as ingeniously timely approving the registration of Russia’s vaccine one day before his first visit to Russia after assuming office. Admittedly, anti-China sentiments in Kyrgyzstan are way more drastic than that in Kazakhstan. So, with the diplomacy factor added to the scene, the new President cannot but advance carefully every step of the way, and is bound to go in favor of Russia’s vaccine.
With regard to Turkmenistan, the country has been heavily dependent on China economically in recent years, and the export of its natural gas to China nabs 90% of its total annual output. It is a sensible balancing move to cooperate with Russia on the supply of vaccine this time. As for Uzbekistan, with a huge population and unlike Kazakhstan, which is able to research and develop its own vaccine, the country has to buy from different sources so as to meet the huge domestic demand. In spite of the country using vaccine developed by Anhui Zhifei Longcom, Russia’s vaccine is going to be the main source of supply. Regarding Tajikistan, as President Emomali Rahmon professed the country has vanquished Wuhan pneumonia, it is not imperative to source a supply of vaccine. Besides, due to its poverty, the country prefers obtaining vaccine via WHO’s vaccine scheme, and in fact, it is also examining and approving Russia’s vaccine.
China has been expanding its political and economic clout in the name of the Belt and Road Initiative in recent years. Yet when it comes to issues other than economic cooperation, Central Asian countries trust Russia more. It seems that the real soft powers of great powerful nations are revealed in the battle over vaccine diplomacy in Central Asia.
(Suen Chiu-kwan, researcher at Global Studies Institute in Hong Kong and The Glocal)
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