Southbound boost for Hong Kong stocks may unleash capital outflow in China
Driven by capital from mainland China, Hong Kong stocks have soared despite the U.S. sanctions, closing at a 20-month high last Tuesday. But an expert warns that the southbound capital flow may cripple the Chinese economy.
Chinese companies sanctioned by the U.S. are the main beneficiaries of the latest inflow of southbound capital to Hong Kong.
Veteran political commentator Johnny Lau said the move serves to create an illusion that Chinese entities are not affected by the sanctions. By controlling the stock prices through the state apparatus, Beijing is shoring up foreign investors’ confidence in the Chinese and Hong Kong economy, he said.
Given Beijing’s strict controls on capital flight in the past, it has long been notoriously difficult for entrepreneurs and capitalists to transfer funds out of China. The latest order to support Chinese stocks in Hong Kong allows them to move funds through purchase of shares, but Lau expects the capital to be transferred out of the Asia financial hub.
According to Reuters, the unusual rally in Hong Kong stocks and Chinese A-shares despite the imposition of the national security law showed China’s resolve to stabilize the economy of China as well as of Hong Kong.
Lau also cited past examples to show that China’s attempts to manipulate the financial market come at great risk. The A-share market suffered a painful crash in 2015 after a stock market bubble popped in June. Hundreds of companies suspended dealings in their shares as their valuations plummeted. It resulted in the resignations and replacement of a number of Chinese officials, including Yao Gang, the then vice chairperson of China’s securities regulator.
Even after years of bear market, the A-stocks have yet to claw back from its crash, Lau added.
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