While Sino-US relations are being entangled in trade war amid Wuhan pneumonia epidemic and the predicament of Hong Kong issue, news of US Secretary of State Pompeo meeting with Yang Jie-chi, Director of the Office of the Central Commission for Foreign Affairs, spread like wildfire suddenly. Both China and the US have neither denied nor confirmed the news of the secret meeting. In addition, the Hong Kong version of national security law is not explicitly listed on the agenda of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress to be convened this week. These have triggered endless speculation among HK people. Is the secret meeting related to the fate of Hong Kong? Will the Chinese Communist Party(CCP) back down? Although it is still uncertain whether there will be such a meeting as speculated, netizens who favor “mutual destruction” have been chanting “it’s a jerk to back down” as if the CCP representatives are going to “beg for peace" with the US.

Will the CCP back down? As I pointed out in this column last week, China has reached a critical point where it cannot help but launch political reforms. Compromising on Hong Kong problem is a strategic move to gain trust of Europe and the US and stabilize economic and trade relations. This could ease the current crisis and buy time for a steady turn. However, I have also pointed out that the CCP’s current hard line is part and parcel of Xi Jin-ping’s leadership; defying the party line is no different from defying Xi’s authority. Unless Xi Jin-ping loses his grip on power, the CCP will not make major changes in the party line; and as long as Xi maintains absolute power, the hard line will be followed through. If the fundamentals are not changed, any meetings and promises will just be stalling tactics. If the secret Sino-US meeting really takes place, what would be on the agenda for negotiation? At present, the only factor which may induce change in Sino-US relations is the US presidential election in November, and the CCP will definitely take into consideration such a factor in its US policy and diplomatic negotiations.

US bipartisan consensus to get tough with China

This is not the first time the CCP has linked the US election to Sino-US negotiations. When the Sino-US trade war started ahead of 2018 US mid-term elections, the CCP tried to delay trade negotiations time and again, betting that the election results would create variables for the negotiation. Contrary to CCP’s wishes, although the Democratic Party took majority control of the House of Representatives, and the conflicts between the two parties were very intense, the Republicans and Democrats were highly united on the issue of China. The House of Representatives controlled by the Democratic Party did not soften its stance on China; instead it cooperated with the Republicans and introduced a number of tough bills against China. The CCP’s gamble on 2018 mid-term elections did not pay off.

Now if the CCP gambles on Trump being brought down in November in its favor, it will commit yet another big mistake. US Trump haters mainly resent his mishandling of domestic affairs but not his China policy. Even Pelosi, Speaker of the US House of Representatives as well as a well-known Trump hater, cooperates with Trump on China matters. Although Trump has repeatedly accused Obama and Biden of being weak on China, as a matter of fact, the “pivot to Asia" strategy aiming to hold China in check was proposed by Obama. The strategy was not implemented with full strength only because the US economy did not fully recover at that time. With the issues of COVID-19 and Hong Kong, even if Biden wins the election, the US, including the ruling and the opposition party, scholars, think tanks and ordinary people, will not change its tough stance towards China. With Trump’s departure, the country may even be more united against China.

If Biden wins the election, it may facilitate the creation of a united front of Europe and the US against China. Trump's punishing tariffs on EU goods and his ambiguous attitude toward Russia are the main reasons for the alienation of Europe from the US. In the past year, Europe has never been openly critical of China. Obviously, a key consideration is to balance the political and economic strength of the US and Russia. However, this relationship built upon common stakes will not bridge the ideological trenches between China and Europe. If the US stops the tariff war against Europe, reasserts the position of uniting with EU against Russia, and drops the proposal of reinstating Russia into the G8, the US and Europe will likely become allies again. Trump's defeat is likely to contribute to this. When the relations between Europe and the US are restored, the pressure of international sanctions will grow on the CCP. Hence, whether Biden wins or Trump gets re-elected, the international pressure that the CCP need to face will be the same. The CCP will stand to lose again if it continues to bet on the US Presidential Election.

(Lam Hoi, Journalist)

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