Recently, China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has been deploying different types of fighters to go through and in and out of the cross-strait median line on a frequent basis. The planes' movements, with the southwestern part of the waters of the strait being the target area, are coordinated with the PLA’s vessels in its combative military exercises. In the future, the scope of the target will expand to other areas surrounding Taiwan, thus completing the last step of the PLA’s “three-step

intimidation”, which consists of “circumnavigating Taiwan”, “disturbing Taiwan” and “blocking Taiwan”. Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) no longer exists, and that has an impact on the setting of the first island chain in the western Pacific. Beijing’s “go east” military strategy will see the PLA build up a link with its forces in islands in the South China Sea, so that the PLA can strategically break through America’s Indo-Pacific military strategy of encircling China and also pose security challenges to Taiwan and other countries in the Asia-Pacific region.

In response to the PLA’s unbridled demonstration of force, President Tsai Ing-wen has stressed that Beijing must be self-restrained and not be provocative. To prevent any scenario in which a small scuffle escalates to a war, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense recently changed the term “first strike” in its contingency handling regulations to “the right to self-defense” in the event of Taiwan facing an act of hostility. It has also toughened its stance by requiring the PLA to “take the consequences at its own risk”.

On the other hand, the spokespersons of China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ministry of National Defense and Eastern Theater Command have unanimously claimed that the PLA’s movements in the strait “are legitimate and necessary actions taken to safeguard the country’s national sovereignty and territorial integrity”. They also warned that “the one who plays with fire will eventually get burned”. Global Times, the newspaper responsible for Beijing’s propaganda abroad, also described the movements as “actual drills on attacking Taiwan”. Is it now the time for a showdown between China and Taiwan? Are the PLA drills signs of Beijing getting ready for “reunification with Taiwan by force”? Or do they transcend the military realm and reflect some profound, complex strategic considerations that Beijing has, in the face of the Covid-19 pandemic, the Sino-U.S. trade and technology war, and the natural disasters and food shortage problems on the home front, which force Beijing to ignore the voices of other countries and to destroy the status quo in the Taiwan Strait?

First of all, the large-scale military exercises targeted at Taiwan took place amid the expansion of Taiwan’s international space and the strengthening of the relations between the U.S. and Taiwanese governments. Recently, Czech Senate President Milos Vystrcil, U.S. Health Secretary Alex Azar, and Keith Krach, U.S. Under Secretary of State for Economic Growth, Energy and the Environment, respectively visited Taiwan. Each time, the official level of the visit got higher. Besides, these officials discussed health and economic and trade issues during their trips, and that in effect upset Beijing’s “one-China policy”, prompting it to accuse the related countries of interfering in China’s internal affairs. Taiwan’s interactions with the U.S. also reflect Washington’s resolve to contain China and to distinguish itself from Joe Biden’s position on China by playing the “Taiwan card”. In addition, by selling arms to Taiwan, Washington is supporting the U.S. military-civilian industry and may help the Republican Party to garner support in the lead-up to the presidential election.

Therefore, the PLA’s military exercises seem to be directed at Taiwan, but in fact there is another target. They are held in response to the U.S. military’s arrangement in the Indo-Pacific region, and they are also an extension of China’s struggle against the U.S..

Another objective of the drills is to demonstrate the PLA’s thorough implementation of its principle of treating every military drill as real combat. Basically it is seizing every opportunity to show off this tendency! In 2015, Xi Jinping launched the military reform, the objectives of which are for the Central Military Commission to “exercise overall leadership”, and for the theater commands to be responsible for military operations to develop their capabilities, so that each theater command can independently take part in joint operations and carry out military operations together with other theater commands. To that end, all PLA theater commands have to formulate different military exercise programs in accordance with their training needs, so as to ensure they are capable of implementing the “anti-access/ area-denial” strategy.

Since Somali pirates hijacked ships outside the Gulf of Aden in 2008, the United Nations has been promoting maritime escort operations run by different countries. The PLA has taken the opportunity to carry out “high sea escort operations” and “long sea voyages” with much fanfare, so as to build up the momentum of its “non-war military operations”. In addition, since 2013, shortly after Japan “nationalized” the Diaoyu Islands, Beijing has identified the East China Sea ADIZ and been dispatching aircraft and vessels to patrol the waters near the 12th-nautical mile zone not far from the Diaoyu Islands. This is so far the most controversial security issue between Japan and China.

Third, politically Beijing is making “advanced strategic plans” in the lead-up to the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in 2021 and the 20th CCP National Congress in 2022. In devising an effective “two-systems plan” targeted at Taiwan, as advocated by Xi, it is necessary to break the deadlock of cross-strait relations. Amid Washington’s “strategic push”, Beijing is striving to stabilize the political situation at home and prevent unexpected external changes. It is practicing “strategic tolerance”, seeking to maintain the overall Sino-U.S. strategic situation while severing the “linkage” of cross-strait relations. Therefore, the PLA has to carry out “normalized” naval and air military drills that target the cross-strait median line and ADIZ, so as to establish a “one-China maritime sphere”, force Taipei to acknowledge the “1992 Consensus”, and dial up the pressure on Taiwan to achieve the island’s “reunification with the motherland”. Through drills related to “conflicts in gray areas”, the PLA can also rule out the possibility of intervention by foreign military forces as soon as possible.

In sum, Beijing is trying to use the military drills to achieve multiple objectives amid Sino-U.S. tension and changes in U.S.-Taiwan relations, and in light of the need to exert pressure on cross-strait relations. In terms of its international strategy, Taiwan needs to have “strategic communication” with related countries, demonstrate its will to maintain the cross-strait status quo and safeguard regional peace. In terms of its military strategy and tactics, Taiwan needs to adopt a “proactive defense” strategy, expand the coverage of the existing ADIZ, and coordinate reconnaissance activity and sea patrols at a given time and on a regular basis. We need to strengthen our defense capabilities and ward off any PLA attempt to dig deep into our soil, so that we can achieve the strategic goal of building up “heavy deterrence”.

(Wong Ming-hsien, professor from Tamkang University, the director of the Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies, and chairman of the Taiwan Strategy Research Association)

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