by Fong Yuen

The situation in the Taiwan Strait has become increasingly tense these days, especially when Taiwan was testing missiles, the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) fighter and bomber jets pushed closed to Taiwan’s airspace for 45 times, and Taiwan’s aircraft took off for emergency precautions. The CCP’s sudden move stemmed from the sales of arms to Taiwan by the United States, the director of the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) William Brent Christensen joined Tsai Ing-wen in Kinmen to pay homage to the U.S. military generals who died in the Aug. 13 artillery battle, as well as the United States' full-on support for Taiwan’s expansion on the international stage. These extreme pressures from the United States are beginning to make it hard for the CCP to swallow.

Recently, the United States announced the six security assurances given to Taiwan during the era of U.S. President Ronald Reagan, among which the most important was that “the United States' long-term stance on Taiwan’s sovereignty has not changed.” Although the statement is vague, its intentions are sly. If Taiwan has “sovereignty”, then it is not subordinate to the People’s Republic of China, so what is this sovereignty? Of course it is the Republic of China. The existence of the Republic of China is a fact, which is recognized by the United States. Whatever the CCP’s definition of “One-China” is, the United States already has its own views on Taiwan.

With all the changes that happened in the world since last year, the Sino-U.S. relations have never been this bad. Conflicts have become more acute, and there is almost no turning back. The United States shows support for Taiwan in every aspect, not only has it formed a deep alliance with Taiwan’s high-tech industry, TSMC has become the darling of the United States, and the American high-tech companies are moving up set up branches in Taiwan. The United States is passing all sorts of technology to Taiwan, and an unprecedented climax of development is currently brewing in Taiwan

With regard to diplomacy, Taiwan has repeated broken through the CCP’s blockade since last year. The CCP has splurged on getting some smaller countries over to its side, but with the help of the United States, Taiwan has won the favor of many Western developed countries, and is increasingly being seen in the international arena. The President of the Czech Parliament led a delegation to visit Taiwan and gave a speech in the National Assembly. Wang Yi shot insults around Europe and received a collective counterblow from the European Union. Taiwan-U.S. relations are improving by the day, to a point where it is not impossible that the United States will one day officially recognize Taiwan.

In terms of military, the United States' sales of advanced weapons to Taiwan was audacious. Its military aircraft carriers are patrolling the South China Sea of Taiwan, and it has achieved military allyship with Japan, Australia, and India in Taiwan, thus Taiwan is becoming more and more confident in defense. U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, David Stilwell recently said in public, “These actions challenge the peace and stability of the Western Pacific. Let’s be clear: These destabilizing actions come from Beijing, not from Taipei or Washington.” Japanese scholar Matsuda Yasuhiro also expressed that if Taiwan is violated militarily, “Japan will also intervene once the U.S. army is dispatched.” All signs point to that if Taiwan is under CCP’s threat, it will not be fighting alone.

In order to alleviate the Sino-U.S. tension, the CCP has been going soft in its propaganda and proclaimed that it will not be firing the first shot in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait. However, it has a chance of stance recently again, and acted as if they wanted to penalize Tsai Ing-wen. It is clear that the CCP is wavering in the Taiwan Strait crisis, and is stuck in a dilemma.

The current development is in the direction of intensifying the Sino-U.S. conflicts, and the chances of a local war in Taiwan between China and the United States are getting higher. The United States is faced with internal societal turbulence, and pressured within and beyond are huge; China is dealing with internal and external problems and is stuck in an impasse; both countries are in need of a war to shift the focus and relieve themselves of the difficult situations they are in. Moreover, the President of the United States is Donald Trump, and the CCP’s President is Xi Jinping. Both are combative and do not like to lose or look weak. If the CCP were in the hands of Hu Jintao, and the United States were under Obama, the two countries would not be able to start a war. The current situation is pressing with aggressive leaders, and thus the chance of going to war is higher.

The United States is adopting a strategy of extreme pressure on the Taiwan issue, which is to continue to provoke and push the bottom line of the CCP. The CCP has so far been restrained, but the United States is pushing harder, and there is no way that the CCP will continue to tolerate, so a counterattack is evitable. Only relying on verbal insults will be looked down upon by the other countries, plus it will not pass the mainland patriotic “little pinks”. As the situation deteriorates, war will soon be started from the smallest collision.

Once military contacts between China and the United States in the Taiwan Strait begin, Japan, Australia, and India will for sure join in. Japan, Australia, and India have been enduring bully by the CCP for a prolonged period of time, and have accumulated enough frustration that their stances towards China have clearly become tougher since last year. Japan, India, and ASEAN have been interacting frequently. Australia and China have already exchanged attacks. As for India, it has already fired its first shot in the border conflict recently. The three countries shared the same hatred towards the same enemy, forming a collaborative force. Moreover, coupled with the military power of Taiwan’s main island, with resistance towards the CCP led by the United States, the difference in the strength of the two sides has become apparent, and the CCP is about to face the greatest military challenge in its history.

The world is in a bizarre situation with an accumulation of contradictions, so there must be an outlet. The so-called peace is but a period of recuperation between two wars, while the so-called war is but a settlement between two periods of peace. Because of humans' selfishness and deep-rooted bad habits, no country is a saint. When it comes down to a matter of life and death, it is all about the comparison of strength.

As the war looms near, let it be luck if it can be avoided, and let it be fate if it cannot.

Click here for Chinese version

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