The Politburo Standing Committee is placed at the top of Chinese Communist Party (CCP)’s power structure. Since the 15th National Congress, the Stipulation that those turning 67 can remain in office while those at their 68 have to leave their posts has been put in practice. According to this, coupled with other CCP’s regulations, three or four key people will renew their office term at the 20th National Congress. New members of the Politburo Standing Committee will be deemed candidates for the successor in the future. So, conservatively speaking, Xi Jinping will renew his office term at least one more time, and the candidates will come on the scene soon. That said, there has never been any official recognition for the Stipulation. What’s more, as even the constitution is amendable, what wasn’t done in the past is not necessarily impossible to be done in the future. That is where the variable lies.

How would America consider this variable? Let’s look into two things the US has done recently. First of all, Biden has demanded a report on the origin of the Covid-19 pneumonia from US intelligence agencies. Irrespective of whether the conclusion of the investigation will be concrete, it is to be levelled at the CCP, which means unification of the entire globe to isolate the CCP so that immense diplomatic pressure on the latter will get in shape. Secondly, the US has kept pressing on with the stance in support of Taiwan, as evidenced by the fact that a military plane sent vaccine to Taiwan on D-Day, which is also a diplomatic gesture. It can be expected that endeavors similar to the two mentioned above will be made in the year to come in an escalating manner, and the closer to the 20th National Congress, the more provocative they will be. So, whether things will go as they are expected at the 20th National Congress is still anybody’s guess.

For the time being, we should pay close attention to plans mapped out for the situation by three stakeholders. As for Japan, if it is desirous of restoring its status as a normal state, it has to foster its overseas enemies; so, it is not impossible for the country to intensify the situation at opportune moments. As regards Europe, the actual effectiveness of sending a fleet of warships to cruise around the high seas is negligible. As long as Germany is not a hindrance, the stance taken by small countries is vulnerable. When it comes to Russia, it will directly affect the balance of situation, determine who is going to win in the confrontation between the East and West.

Have a look at a timeline. In response to the question whether it is possible for Russia and China to form an alliance against America, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia Sergey Lavrov said Russia and China are pleased with the current way of cooperation, which means there will be no enhancement of it. At the beginning of this month, when mentioning a possible alliance between Russia and China, Consulate General of Russia in China Aleksandr Shmanevskiy pointed out that a formal alliance, not least a military or political one, is not the best solution to Russia-China relations. Then, the US sent a military plane to Taiwan to announce giving away vaccine to the latter. Biden and Putin are going to meet each other soon, and it is anticipated that neither statement nor gesture like the one released by Europe will be made, for Russia will just take action to do whatever it deems necessary. The question is whether Biden is the suitable partner.

The CCP is no innocent, though. No matter how substantial the pressure is going to be, once it determines to pursue taking back Taiwan by force like what it used to propagate, it will prioritize centralization of administrative power over everything but delegate military powers to lower levels. Moreover, if it seizes one or two outlying islands, such an achievement will definitely outshine that of the predecessors. Pushing its way through awkward times for now before scaling down QE, the US has to take into account that once it is embroiled in warfare, the worsening financial situation will give rise to the Triffin paradox, while the digital currency is not yet prepared by the central bank. Worse, no sooner had Biden assumed office than some people wanted to impeach him. Russia has demonstrated the fact that the US and Europe were inactive when it snatched Crimea. So, the Cross-Strait crisis this time is out of the ordinary. As the typhoon season is nearing, if the Cross-Strait is to meet with a mishap, it will probably happen either in the winter of this year or spring next year after the report by the intelligence agencies is issued. 90 days from now, turbulence will hit the globe again.

Only those who have suffered hardships know the real meaning and joy of success.

End.

This article is translated from Chinese by Apple Daily.

Click here for Chinese version

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