What now? This is the obvious question in the wake of the ‘rubber stamp’ National People’s Congress’s decision to create a national security law for Hong Kong. The Communist Party does not just want a law on the statute books, it has plans for how it will be used.

The most worrying event is the prospect of mass arrests of opposition figures. The Communist regime has never encountered a member of the opposition that it would not prefer to see behind bars. Armed with a law that is sufficiently weaponised to make all manner of opposition an offence, it is only a matter of time before the jails will be filled to bursting with political offenders.

At the sharp end of this new form of law enforcement will be the police force, but what will change is that the invisible hand of China’s security apparatus guiding police’s actions will become very visible. It may be argued that as Chinese state security enforcers have covertly operated in Hong Kong, it will make little difference. But it does, because once there is direct command by officials who have great experience in running a police state, the space for far more strenuous repression will be greatly enhanced.

Then here comes the question of what kind of opposition political activity will still be allowed. The answer is very little. The current practise of banning demonstrations will become routine. The right to express opinions will very rapidly be subjected to examination over whether they are seditious. We do not need to guess the result because in the eyes of the Communist Party all views not sanctioned by the Party are, by definition, seditious. Some token political opposition will be tolerated but token is the keyword here.

Then there are matters not covered by the new law but will be highly affected in an atmosphere of limited tolerance for opposition. Thus we will see many more candidates being disqualified for standing for election. The mini-purge of so-called dissents working in the public sector will become a flood with an emphasis on teachers, lecturers and civil servants who will either be sacked or barred from promotion.

Then, and this is a very big question, there is the matter of how to bring Hong Kong’s famously independent legal system to heel. It is possible that the Party will tread more cautiously here as even the most rabid anti-democrats are not quite mad enough to believe that the end of an independent judiciary can be achieved without enormous implications for Hong Kong’s future as an international business centre. Yet, make no mistakes, the judiciary will be brought to heel and the way it will be done will be excruciating. It is likely to start with ramping up the appointment and promotion of judges considered to be ‘sound’. Next up will be a continuing process of turning the prosecutions division of the Justice Department into an arm of the state keen to prosecute offenders for political crimes carrying long jail sentences.

At worst, and this is already under consideration, there will be the establishment of special courts to try national security offences. These will be kangaroo courts where the presumption of guilt is the only presumption that matters.

There will also be even tighter control over immigration matters with widespread entry bans on people suspected of so-called ‘foreign meddling’. This is already underway but far more is to come. It is not just individuals who will be targeted, the new law will certainly be used to target organisations. Experience from the Mainland gives a clear idea on how all embracing this can be. Bodies that seem to be a-political will soon find that they are outlawed.

It may be argued that this is an excessively dystopian vision for the post-2020 Hong Kong. Crucially it does not take account of the response to the law either at home or abroad.

Despite the Mainland’s endlessly repeated mantra that foreign countries have no business ‘meddling’ in China’s internal affairs, Beijing is not as immune to overseas pressure as it likes to pretend to be. Its global ambitions depend on acceptance in the international community, the more it becomes a pariah, the more these ambitions are curbed. Only the most primitive thinkers in Beijing cling to the notion that because China is the biggest country in the world it has the muscle to be exempt from international norms.

Meanwhile, there is the question of resistance from within Hong Kong. Unlike the people of the Mainland, Hongkongers have tasted liberty, it is a taste they will not willingly forsake. Some will be intimidated into silence; others will become supporters of the resistance while remaining firmly in the background. And then there are those who are brave enough to confront the new order, not just on the streets but in many other ways. The simple fact of the matter is that if there are enough of them, a policy of relying purely on repression will not work.

It is just possible that in the face of a massive response, Beijing might actually be hesitant in implementing this law in all the ways outlined above. However, the mood across the border is dangerously angry and determined. Indeed it is so angry and determined that excessive zeal may well result in over reach, with damaging implications for China. A massive crackdown on Hong Kong poses many risks for the dictatorship.

History however remains firmly on the side of the people who love freedom. It is important to remember that nothing is forever and that the shelf life of dictatorships is never, ever, as long as they think it will be.

(Stephen Vines is a Hong Kong-based journalist, writer and broadcaster and runs companies in the food sector. He was the founding editor of 'Eastern Express' and founding publisher of 'Spike'. In London he was an editor at The Observer and in Asia has worked for international publications including, the Guardian, Daily Telegraph, BBC, Asia Times and The Independent and, during Hong Kong’s 2019/20 protests, for the Sunday Times. Vines is the author of several books, including: Hong Kong: China’s New Colony, The Years of Living Dangerously - Asia from Crisis to the New Millennium and Market Panic and most recently, Food Gurus. He hosts a weekly television current affairs programme: The Pulse")

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