Mao Zedong’s Great Leap Forward led to a calamitous decade of Cultural Revolution, causing tens of thousands of deaths. Frustrated by defeats, personal worships and public criticism and denunciation within the party were his attempts to regain power, resulting in many high-level officials being persecuted to death. The failure of a man-made catastrophe did not lead to evaluations and regrets, but instead aggravated to a “Strongman Character” that further ravaged the country’s stability. The same model is exactly what we are currently seeing clearly on the Mao-reincarnated vessel of Emperor Xi. A model identical in nature only means identical results, which are only bigger catastrophes – the only difference being that the victims are not just limited to Chinese citizens, but could cost the survival of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) (Will Emperor Xi be the biggest enemy of the CCP?) Since taking office, Xi Jinping has been the catastrophe of the Chinese citizens. Strangely enough, this could also be the culmination of Chinese citizens’ entry to freedom.


When Xi assumed office in 2012, China had just risen to the 2nd largest economy in the world, with abundant foreign exchange reserves, and in a great position of a brimming relationship with the US. Who would have foreseen that after 7 years of being Chairman, Xi would proclaim himself as Emperor, not only reverting China to the feudal dark ages, but utterly screwing up 30 years of China’s opening up. Moreover, with enemies on all fronts, China has been alienated and isolated by the developed world, leaving only Iran and North Korea, the “Axis of Evil”, as its close allies, and even the relationship with Russia is debatable. China has become despicable to the outside world, dragging behind a seedy, lonely shadow on an empty and pale world stage. The biggest mess since opening up, the economic depression is reflecting on China’s worst prodigal son in history – Strongman Emperor Xi.


The sovereign descended with the grandiose ambition of leading the community of human destiny, only to wake up to wake up to a bad dream of high aspirations and little ability. His initiative of the century, “the New Great Wall” Belt and Road, met its Waterloo; Made in China 2025 grand plan vanished after the Trade War with the US; a year that was meant for poverty alleviation and aggression turned to rubbles and desperation. Huawei’s scheme of infiltrating the world’s information network through 5G was countered by the US; Wuhan Virus shook and woke the free world, where UK, Germany, Japan and Korea all shunned Huawei’s 5G network, and even decided to phase out existing Huawei facilities. The US has been the forerunner in the opening up of China’s market, the largest market for rapid economic growth. Deng Xiaoping once said that good relationship with the US would bring riches to China, and China has indeed prospered through its interdependence with the US. However, Xi has dismantled the US-China relationship, making the US its biggest enemy today. Aside from the Trade War, the US has imposed sanctions on technology product exports from China, decreased student visas for Chinese students pursuing their education in the US, monitored Chinese personnel involved in research, development, technology, and sensitive industries in the US, as well as people who do business with the US. These measures disrupted the industrial chain of cooperation between China and foreign countries, interrupted the inherent economic model of supply and demand, and made China's economic recovery after the pandemic a huge burden.


With China’s economy at the rock-bottom, and even the foreign exchange reserve is about to dry up, Emperor Xi has decided, right at this moment, to forgo the law by using the National Security Law to strangle Hong Kong, the goose that laid golden eggs, the best channel to promote China’s foreign trade and finance when all other means have been cut off. Under the unprecedented tension between China and the US, Chinese companies listed in New York will inevitably be subject to stricter monitoring and might want to return to Hong Kong for listing; Chinese companies that want to raise funds in foreign financial markets such as New York must also be subject to more restrictions. Hong Kong, a global financial center, once a convenient alternative channel, is now stifled by the National Security Law. The National Security Law is bound to destroy the inherent rule of law in Hong Kong. With no more legal protection, businesses operating in Hong Kong will only obtain protection through bribes and dignitaries as in the mainland. Without the rule of law, the mutual trust in the market is gone, transaction costs will increase, and the financial industry with split-second million-dollar transactions will struggle to survive, and with it goes Hong Kong’s status as a financial center.


What the heck is Emperor Xi doing? No, take a look at Dear Mao’s actions following the decade of Cultural Revolution catastrophe and you will understand. The more unsettled his throne gets, the more aggressive Emperor Xi goes in making enemies outside, as a means to unite citizens to resist. Creating conflicts within the country is to warn his political opponents against caustic actions. Therefore despite the high rate of unemployment, the emotional uproar from people due to the pandemic, political opponents that are waiting to pounce on him, Emperor Xi not only strongly retaliated against the US, but used the opportunity to impose the National Security Law in Hong Kong, employed military intimidation against Taiwan in the Taiwan Strait, elicited conflicts on the Indian border, all to show the Great America that Chinese citizens are silenced, political opponents are quieted, a demonstration of Emperor Xi’s Mao-style Strongman character. Behind the children’s games there lies rational planning.


Obviously, such an act of desperate and rash gamble from Emperor Xi at the brink of an economic collapse has but a single goal of securing his lifelong sovereignty at the 2020 National People’s Congress (NPC) deliberation. With no single attempt from Xi that has not failed thus far, if he does not vanquish the rebellious Hongkongers, use military intimidation to threaten Taiwan to surrender to “One Country, Two System”, put up a grandstand among neighbors of the South China Sea, where would he get credits to pass the 2022 NPC deliberation? Would he succeed? That will all depend on whether Trump keeps his word.


Trump has been the toughest and most effective President against the CCP in US history. He promised “serious consequences” regarding the CCP’s forceful implementation of unlawful Hong Kong National Security Law. Following Trump’s earlier warnings of sanctioning CCP officials and removing Hong Kong’s special status as a separate customs zone over the Hong Kong National Security Law, the US Senate subsequently passed the Hong Kong Autonomy Act on Friday. US Secretary of State Pompeo even stated that visa restrictions would be imposed upon Chinese officials who are “eviscerating” Hong Kong’s autonomy, human rights, and fundamental freedoms. Trump was no longer sugar-coating his words, as if gloves are coming off and he is ready to strike. I say he would not strike in a single huge blow, but would employ a series of sanctions and punishments towards China, leveling up with each blow, as his campaign strategy for the November elections. He is well aware of the pain and anger in the Americans from the loss of lives, jobs, and money during this Wuhan Virus pandemic. By using a series of strikes in his campaign as revenge against the losses cause by the CCP on the American people, vents would turn into support for him. In contrast with Biden’s empty words, this is a very smart strategy. Action is louder than words, this is an extremely favorable condition for Trump to win this election.


If Trump is re-elected, the CCP would hesitate over its “spicy” measure of the National Security Law, which is the best guarantee for the rule of law and freedom in Hong Kong. Yes, this will also turn Hong Kong into a battlefield between China and the US, causing some turbulence and chaos. However, this will also make Hong Kong the "new Berlin" of the new Cold War between the US and China. Just as during the Cold War between the US and the Soviet Union, if Berlin was captured by the Soviet Union and fell, the US would have lost its hegemony in Europe. If Hong Kong is destroyed by the National Security Law this time, the US will be deemed unworthy by its Asian allies, and if Taiwan would subsequently fall, so would US’s hegemony in Asia. “Waging war” against China on the Hong Kong version of the National Security Law, the US is essentially making Hong Kong the "new Berlin" which the US must safeguard. Perhaps a blessing in disguise, this is the origin of a miracle happening within Hong Kong, the bridgehead of Western value ethics. Let us pray for Hong Kong!

(Jimmy Lai is the founder of Next Digital, which publishes the Apple Daily and Next Magazine in Hong Kong and Taiwan.)

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