As of the day I wrote this article, the U.S. daily new cases topped 220,000, a record high since the Covid-19 pandemic began. The country added more than 1 million cases in just five days, which is closely related to the travel over the Thanksgiving holiday. President-elect Joe Biden said he would ask the people to wear masks for 100 days, but vaccination would not be mandatory. California Governor Gavin Newsom has warned the state is expected to run out of hospital beds soon, imposing a new curfew and a three-week stay-at-home order. Restaurants are closed for indoor dining but offer takeout options. Barbershops and nail salons are closed again. Schools will soon be closed for Christmas break, but students seem unlikely to return to school in early January.

But the police in the Golden State have said they will not enforce any of the bans, stressing officers will not go to your home to check if you are holding gatherings. And face mask rules are unlikely to be enforced by frontline officers.

What about vaccination? The latest polls show only 60% of Americans plan to get vaccinated, with the youth among the least likely to get one. Even if the young people are willing to get a shot, they will have to wait in line for probably six months since the manufacturing of vaccines takes time. The problem of vaccine efficacy and cold chain delivery needs to be addressed. The end of the epidemic is not yet in sight in the United States.

We are getting numb to the rising numbers of coronavirus deaths and infections. The development of vaccines is equivalent to landing someone on the moon during the Cold War. Its success can not only benefit the health of the people, it will become a key resource and prestige in the formation of an international alliance. China is using the vaccine blueprint to consolidate its ties with South Asia and to boost its Belt and Road Initiative. The effect of the vaccine diplomacy on the U.S. and Indo-Pacific alliance remains uncertain. The order in which vaccines are injected will definitely become a political issue. Taiwan previously suffered flu shot chaos. How to administer the Covid-19 vaccination, including the dose distribution and the shot order, should be planned in advance so the public knows what to expect.

However, it’s easier said than done. The seemingly endless epidemic crisis has led to economic losses and psychological pressure. It has also affected the public’s assessment of public matters, in terms of cost-effectiveness and self/other dichotomies.

I participated in a psychological study involving 50 countries, which found that the severity of the outbreak is increasing people’s sensitivity to losses. Equivalent gains and losses are felt differently. And people are more likely to take risks when facing losses. Many of the articles published in the journals on health and political science suggest the immediate consequences of the pandemic include xenophobia and racism. These problems are seen in polls in the U.S. and Europe as people unconsciously believe those outside their countries are more likely to get infected.

Other articles examine the relationship between Covid-19 and patriotism, but the relation between the two is not absolute. People initially showed support for the government as Covid-19 got worse. However, in the long run, patriotism depends on how well the nation responds to the pandemic. The surveys by me and my students in the U.S. found that the worse the Covid-19 pandemic gets, the less patriotic Americans feel. This has been found in some of the national polls, too. In Taiwan, where the spread of the epidemic is successfully contained, another extreme is seen.

But the combination of the two psychological mechanisms (adaptations) is not necessarily favorable to the ruling party. Taiwan is a democracy where rival parties compete for power. Love of country and love of the party are not the same.

When the outbreak affects the public’s assessment of cost-effectiveness and self/other dichotomies, they will ask for detailed explanations and more compensation if policies endanger their potential rights. Under such conditions, the administration’s mere call for fairness, spat with opposition parties, or rebuke to shop owners are unconvincing. It is reflected in the decline of the cabinet’s approval rating, identification with the ruling party, and secondary transmission of the ruling party’s information.

If the ruling party wants to stabilize the current situation, the framework of gains is important. Well, the ruling party is likely to assume gains are relative. Compared to other countries, the island’s economic growth and low infection rate can be seen as gains. But prospect theory is awarded a Nobel Prize in that when individuals evaluate potential gains, they set the present moment as the starting point. More importantly, these psychological mechanisms and circumstances are very likely to stoke the flames of xenophobia, greed for short-term economic gains, and state supremacy. Such development is detrimental to Taiwan’s subsequent role as the U.S. is decoupling from China and Indo-Pacific strategy is emerging.

(Austin Wang Horng-En, Assistant professor of Department of Political Science at University of Nevada, Las Vegas)

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