In my column last week, I wrote that Beijing has its own agenda on issues related to “liberating Taiwan” and Xi is more ambitious than his predecessors in “liberating Taiwan.” So how big is his ambition? Why is it not big enough to take advantage of the chaos during the U.S. election to attack Taiwan?

After Xi Jinping came to power, the crisis in the Taiwan Strait has intensified, as shown by the following specific manifestations. First, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has increasingly realized that the best way to alleviate the pressure on democracy and human rights issues in the international community is to take the initiative to attack. As a result, the CCP has strengthened its external propaganda, coveting leadership in the international arena. The capture of democratic Taiwan will not only fulfill the dream to unify China but also adds the value of the victory of autocracy over democracy.

Secondly, China has become the world’s second-largest economy and has more financial resources to substantially increase its military expenditure. Thirdly, Xi Jinping has reshuffled the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to crack down on corruption. More than 70 officials of military rank were removed from their posts, including four from the Central Military Commission.

Fourth, China introduced the two-child policy. This policy is not only for the purpose of recruiting cannon fodder, but also to objectively ease the resistance of Chinese parents to send their children to the battlefield. Due to the heavy financial burden on families, the effects of the two-child policy have not yet come into play. However, there has been a trend of forced birth in some places.

Fifth, the education of patriotism and nationalism was further strengthened. People who are willing to die for the country have grown up, although they are not as spectacular as the “five cents army” and the “little pink.”

So how pressing is Xi Jinping’s desire to attack Taiwan? Has the crisis in the Taiwan Strait reached a critical moment? Critics generally believe that Xi Jinping is a strong and authoritarian leader, more willing and daring than his predecessors to use force against Taiwan. At the same time, by using the “China Dream” as his ruling slogan, he has a greater sense of mission “to realize the unification of the motherland.”

On the other hand, the CCP under Xi’s rule more strict controls and manipulates the media, using nationalist incitement to make up for the lack of legitimacy of the regime. With the euphoric propaganda of China’s “rise and rejuvenation” and the younger generation in Taiwan drifting further away from China, the public opinion of “liberating Taiwan” is rising. The call for an invasion of Taiwan by force has become widespread among the public. Beijing will feel the pressure and be “forced” to attack Taiwan.

I think the above two characteristics are very obvious, but they are not to be feared. First, almost all dictators have two distinctive qualities. On the one hand, they are arrogant and domineering; on the other hand, they are insecure and bullying. In recent years, the CCP has not strayed too far from this equilibrium, considering the trade conflicts between the U.S. and China, the Sino-Indian border frictions, the South China Sea sovereignty disputes, and the Taiwan Strait crisis. Secondly, with the development of the Internet, the CCP’s control over public opinion and propaganda has become more precise, and nationalist sentiments are completely under control. “We must liberate Taiwan even if the island can no longer grow grass.” This kind of saying sounds very radical among the people, but in fact, it is officially allowed or even authorized in an attempt to threaten the people of Taiwan. Otherwise, why do these “patriots” not dare to inquire about the historical issues and solutions to the Sino-Russian border territorial disputes?

Realistic demands for power are more important than individual and nationalist feelings. Xi Jinping amended the constitution to pave the way for lifelong power. However, analysts argue that he needs more reasons to convince the opposition within the party. The best reason would be to take over Taiwan and win the great feat of achieving the reunification of the motherland.

Judging from the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, which ended last month, Xi Jinping seems to be smarter than the analysts. It is obviously easier to suppress the opposition in the party than to attack Taiwan. Although the opposition and struggles within the party have not ceased, the power machine that the CCP has long built has made it easy for those in power to destroy dissidents.

Not only did the fifth plenary session not recommend a successor of the current leader as usual, nor did it meet the expectations of public opinion in the internal party struggle, but it also resulted in an overwhelming personal victory for Xi Jinping. The plenary communiqué affirmed and praised the glorious achievements made by the CCP under Xi’s leadership, emphasizing that “With Comrade Xi Jinping as the core of the Central Committee of the Party and the core of the entire Party at the helm...we will definitely be able to overcome the various difficulties and obstacles that arise ahead.” In national defense and military affairs, “we adhere to Xi Jinping’s thought on strengthening the army” and “uphold the absolute leadership of the party over the people’s army.”

Compared to Xi Jinping’s previous remarks on Taiwan, the communiqué of the fifth plenum session only talked about “promoting the peaceful development of cross-strait relations and the reunification of the motherland,” without responding much to the public opinion and the military exercises in the Taiwan Strait. It can be assumed that Xi Jinping is not in a hurry to “liberate Taiwan,” nor will he take advantage of the U.S. election chaos to attack Taiwan, as experts feared

This does not mean that Taiwan can rest easy.

(Chang Ping, commentator)

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