Britain should not eat Beijing’s poisoned cake | Tom Rogan
Anticipating the imminent arrival of Britain’s post-Brexit trading structure, China has unleashed a new economic pressure campaign against London. Beijing’s intent is to see Prime Minister Boris Johnson return to his predecessor David Cameron’s strategy. Namely, Johnson’s pledge of quiet fealty to Beijing in return for big new investments.
On December 31st, Britain will officially be free to set its trading relationships with the rest of the world. A significant element of this framework is currently being negotiated between Britain and the European Union. The EU is Britain’s top trade partner, and Britain is a crucial net export destination for EU businesses. But while both sides are working to reach a post-Brexit agreement that would allow for continued free trade after December 31st, negotiations are struggling. It’s unclear whether the two sides will be able to reach a deal by the deadline. And if that doesn’t happen, both the EU and Britain will face significant economic pain until they can reach an agreement.
Beijing has its fingers crossed for that pain.
The Communist regime is well aware that the more economic pressure is felt in London and the 27 EU capitals, the likelier those governments are to come begging Beijing for a new trade. Xi Jinping and his cronies are banking on being able to use such desperation as a leverage point via which to extract political concessions.
And their eyes are most tightly focused on Britain.
On January 20th, Joe Biden will enter office as the next U.S. president. He has pledged to prioritize stronger relations with the EU. In turn, China will be hoping that Britain’s doubt over its short-term economic future will predispose Boris Johnson to make more concessions to Beijing in fear that Biden won’t support the completion of a U.S.-U.K. trade deal. President Obama, Biden’s former boss, memorably noted that if Britain voted for Brexit it would go to the back of the line for such a deal.
The Communists are aware that the British economy is already struggling amid the continuing coronavirus chaos. Neglecting to admit that they are responsible for the scale of that chaos - by their concealment of early data on the highly infectious and harmful nature of the virus – the Communists are instead focused on taking advantage of the economic pain the virus has caused. Xi’s diplomats and propagandists are now going into overdrive to persuade Britain to beg for new trade deals.
A Global Times editorial this week made clear the terms for a British investment boost. Namely, Britain’s reversing of a recent ban on China’s access to high technology areas of the British economy, and London’s appeasement of China’s foreign policy priorities.
A continuation of Britain’s current policy towards China, the Global Times warned, “will immediately discourage technology firms from investing in the country, because the UK’s governmental discrimination may subject businesses to unnecessary political uncertainty in a US-led technology war against China. Moreover, China-UK bilateral relations may also face unexpected disruptions when it comes to trade issues.” The editorial concluded, “It goes without saying that closer ties with China will offer the country more flexibility in managing trade and investment, as expanding export opportunities in China could bring about a faster and more sustainable economic recovery for the UK and its people.”
This isn’t exactly subtle messaging from Beijing. Xi is basically telling Britain that it must give companies like Huawei a second chance or face Beijing’s economic isolation in retaliation. The direct connection point between a “U.S.-led technology war against China” and “unexpected disruptions” is also critical. That’s another not-so-subtle message of China’s upset over recent British announcements in support of the post-Second World War U.S.-led international order. The upcoming 2021 deployment of a British aircraft carrier to the South China Sea is particularly upsetting to Beijing, reflecting as it does, the increasingly international character of resistance to Xi’s imperialism. That international resistance is deeply problematic in its fundamental undermining of Beijing’s claims that the U.S. is the only country which has problems with its foreign policy.
Britain would be crazy to eat China’s poisoned cake.
China’s investments always come with strings attached. Britain has publicly identified how Huawei’s 5G network is deliberately riddled with software failures that would allow deniable entry by Chinese intelligence officers. That example encapsulates how Beijing views its economic leverage only as a tool of a broader and binary political strategy: to extract serfdom or impose isolation. But while there’s no doubt that democratic nations have real concerns over losing access to Xi’s investments, they should be under no illusions that the choice of kneeling to Xi is an acceptance of serfdom. The connective tissue between China’s trade strategy and its lawless abuse of citizens in Hong Kong and Xinjiang, is quite obvious. This is a regime that cares nothing for anything outside of the advance of its own authoritarian power.
Whatever economic sweets Beijing throws in one moment, they ultimately turn out to be poisoned.
(Tom Rogan, Washington Examiner foreign policy writer)
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