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Editorial: CCP plays HK card, US plays Taiwan card | Apple Daily HK

蘋果日報 2021/01/14 10:10


by Fong Yuen
Since the U.S. and China trade negotiation and Hong Kong anti-ELAB movement, U.S.-China relations have reached a big turning point. The U.S. is on the active and pushy side, whereas China is mostly at the receiving end and seems unable to fight back. This situation has lasted quite a long time.
The U.S. has taken the initiative because the CCP has been secretly infiltrated the U.S. throughout the years. It has taken control of international organizations and advantages from different areas such as foreign trade and affairs, science and technology, academic, business. As soon as the U.S. realized, it lashed out counter-attacks in full force to eliminate threats from the CCP.
The CCP has been defeated repeatedly with some immediate but limited loss and some long-term and uncountable loss. At least Xi Jinping’s outward expansion plan has fallen apart beyond repair, and the lie of “one country, two systems” has nearly been completely exhausted.
After the U.S. clearing out the CCP power within the country, its battle with China basically focuses on Hong Kong and Taiwan. Since the anti-ELAB movement, the CCP attempted several times to suppress Hong Kong by force but gave up due to the objection from the U.S. The CCP’s tolerance towards the Hongkongers has reached its limit as Xi Jinping’s one leader status should not be challenged. Furthermore, Hong Kong is so close to the other mainland provinces. It has a “negative impact” on them and endangers the stability of mainland society.
When the U.S.-China relations worsen and the Wuhan virus ravages, the situation has reached a critical point. The CCP feels that if it tolerates the situation further, it would be an insult to itself, so it decided to suppress Hong Kong ruthlessly. Besides, the Prohibition on Group Gathering Regulation, part of the anti-pandemic measures, has stopped large-scale protests from taking place. The CCP feels that it is time to implement national security law and contain the Basic Law once and for all. Afterward, it will make big arrests and judgments to suppress Hongkongers’ protests by force.
Trump’s government has a clear attitude on the Hong Kong problem but the measures enforced are relatively restrained. The sanctioning on certain organizations and people has only limited impact. Someone pointed out that the U.S. has many options up its sleeve. But it has to consider the huge impact it might have and the possible damage it would suffer, so the U.S. has still not made any decision.
After the mass arrest of 53 pro-democratic camp members by the Hong Kong government, the U.S. government responded instantly. It claimed that it is prepared to apply new sanctions on the related organizations and individuals in Hong Kong, but there is no further detail to this date. However, it has retaliated with actions on the Taiwan issue.
The U.S. Department of State has lifted all restrictions on exchanges with Taiwan. Then the planned Taiwan visit by the U.S. Ambassador to the UN. Kelly Craft has been canceled due to the presidential inauguration. However, the U.S. has promoted Taiwan’s participation in international organizations; the U.S. and Taiwan officials can visit each other without restrictions; Taiwanese organizations based in the U.S. have greater flexibility and initiative; the U.S. further sells military weapons to Taiwan, and U.S. naval and air forces are cruising across the Taiwan Strait. All these have displayed a prospect unfavorable to the CCP, which does not know the U.S. boundary on its diplomatic attack: would the U.S. establish official diplomatic relations with Taiwan? Would it promote Taiwan to join the United Nations one way or the other?
It would hurt the CCP more when the U.S. plays the Taiwan card instead of the Hong Kong card. After all, Taiwan is much more valuable than Hong Kong from the geopolitics perspective. Taiwan is irreplaceable in the CCP’s mission of great unification. Taiwanese are in general anti-communism, which means “one country, two systems” would not convince them. The CCP tried everything, including military threats. But with the support of the U.S. and the U.S. naval and air force cruising across the Taiwan Strait, the effect of its threat is rapidly diminishing to nearly nothing. If the CCP chooses to start a war, it will have to pay an even higher price.
The CCP suppresses Hong Kong further, and the U.S. supports Taiwan more. The U.S. has more other ways to support Taiwan, but the CCP has already on its last suppression tactic on Hong Kong, turning Hong Kong into “one country, one system,” ruling the Hongkongers like the mainlanders. The CCP also has to be careful because if the U.S. uses the financial sanction tactic, it will be too much for the CCP to handle.
The CCP thought Biden being elected would bring them hope, but Biden alone would not be able to rescue the deteriorating U.S.-China relations. That is the very reason the CCP tackles Hong Kong so ruthlessly. What the CCP did not realize is that the more brutal it is suppressing Hong Kong, the more it enrages the American people and the more it provokes the U.S. to apply countermeasures; the more aggressive and barbaric image the western countries have on the CCP, the less likely Biden would remain friendly towards it.
The U.S.-China fight is ongoing, and Biden’s China policy causes concern when he takes office. The CCP can feel free to play the Hong Kong card, but when the U.S. gets tough on its Taiwan card game, it would be hard for the CCP to swallow.
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