The Trump administration is without doubt the friendliest U.S. administration that Taiwan has encountered in recent years. Whilst many believe that Trump is simply treating Taiwan as a pawn in his fight against China, and thus would not deliver genuine support to Taiwan in a crisis, it cannot be denied that it has been Trump’s support that has hindered China’s ambition to “unify” Taiwan over the past four years. As China’s rising national strength increasingly threatens Taiwan, and interruptions from China’s military forces have become increasingly frequent, Trump’s actions have certainly strengthened the safety and the morale of the Taiwanese people.

Trump’s re-election at risk

Yet, from the perspective of many liberals in the US and much of the mainstream media, Trump is seen as an incompetent and dishonest leader. Many worry that if Trump is re-elected for a second term, this would not only be a disaster for the U.S., but also an even greater threat to the world. Apart from the liberals and the Democrats, many Republicans and even some of Trump’s former officials – such as Jim Mattis, the former Defense Secretary, and John Bolton, the former National Security Advisor – have also criticized Trump, often strongly, after leaving office.

The political world is ruthless, and those who fail are often resentful, yet they almost never disparage their former colleagues. Curses from enemies may be seen as medals, but attacks from past comrades are generally viewed as ungracious back stabbing. But attacks of this nature can also be particularly damaging and in many cases fatal. For past senior colleagues to choose outright criticism rather than polite silence, suggests to many people that for them at least the last straw must have finally broken the camel’s back.

There are still differing views over whether Trump is now being deserted overall, yet even polls from his most loyal media show that his re-election is at risk.

China’s CCTV has recently broadcast a documentary about the Second Taiwan Strait Crisis – sometimes referred to as the 1958 Taiwan Strait Crisis. On the one hand, the show reviewed and explained the incident from the Chinese Communist Party’s perspective; on the other hand, the show was also used to threaten Taiwan by suggesting that any promises from the US of protection were not dependable. The show suggested that while the US had indeed come to Taiwan’s aid at that time, they retreated immediately after the People's Liberation Army opened fire.

Strategy adjustment after election

However, if Beijing truly believes the U.S. would not protect Taiwan, either directly with its own military, or indirectly, perhaps with materiel and weapons, they probably would not attempt to rewrite history by threatening Taiwan in this way, or perhaps they are simply trying to convince their own selves.

In fact, Trump’s lack of clarity on many issues might actually be a serious obstruction to Beijing. Whilst some Taiwanese might not appreciate Trump’s leadership style or overall behaviour, they still acknowledge that Taiwan has benefitted the most amongst all of US’s allies during Trump’s administration over the past 3 years – even the opposition party could not deny this.

Thus, Taiwan should treasure and utilize Trump’s ‘goodwill’, but also be beware that after the US election in November, there might be changes in the US stance toward Taiwan and in the overall international situation.

Wariness of China’s perceived hegemony is no longer simply a US view shared by both Democrats and Republicans, it is also shared by many others across the democratic world. Therefore, election results are unlikely to cause major changes to US global strategies, and Taiwan should still benefit.

However, it is remarkable that other world powers such as the EU, Japan and Korea, have not completely followed Trump’s hawkish foreign policy towards China in recent years. This has not only alienated the U.S. at the frontline against China, but also diminished the U.S.’s status as the world’s leader. As a result, if the Democrats win the November election, they might not maintain such a hawkish stance towards China – although the Democratic candidate Joe Biden has long been a strong critic of China and a firm supporter of US-Taiwan relations. Or perhaps, if Trump is re-elected, he might well adjust his policy.

Allying with the U.S. is an inevitable fact of life for Taiwan. Undoubtedly, Trump’s “friendly approach” to Taiwan is extraordinary, and Taiwan should be grateful for his boldness and creativity. But regardless of whether Trump is re-elected or not, it should not influence Taiwan’s decision to continue its strong U.S. alliance. However, Taiwan should, and must, be prepared to adjust its policies and strategies at any time and maintain more than one string to its foreign policy bow in the light of possible changes in U.S. policy.

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