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Carrie Lam vs Ho Tsu-kwok, Leung Chun-ying, Chan Mo-po, Chan Tak-lam or Li Xiaojia?|Andy Ho

蘋果日報 2021/03/19 10:36


Beijing has yet to announce details on how to recast the electoral system in the Special Administrative Region under its new banner of “patriots ruling Hong Kong.” Yet, the race for the next Chief Executive has apparently started in earnest.
Charles Ho Tsu-kwok, 71, a Standing Committee member of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, declared on television last week that he was determined to challenge Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngo should she seek reelection.
Ho made it clear that he did not run to win. He is after the opportunity to take on her in a public debate. “She once said she built more than she destroyed, but I think otherwise. I want to see what she has built,” he said.
Lam has not responded. Instead, her convenor of the Executive Council, Bernard Charnwut Chen, explained on her behalf. He quoted Lam as telling him that she had too many complicated and unfinished tasks on her plate to have the luxury of time and space to consider reelection.
His description, however, does not tally with the way Lam has been spending some of her precious time. She has found time for a light-hearted chit-chat with Chen for her Facebook page.
Over the past few weeks, she has visited, among others, the Jockey Club, a market in Tin Shui Wai, the Western Kowloon Cultural District, the Sham Shui Po Sports Ground, the Lok Ma Chau Police Station and a recycling site in Sheung Wan.
Last Tuesday, she posed for a signature campaign by the pro-Beijing party, Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong in support of the National People’s Congress’ resolution imposed on Hong Kong. She even officiated at a signing ceremony between the Pui Kiu College and a school in Shenzhen. Under normal circumstances, the event would not have warranted the presence of the head of the HKSAR. When these exposures are put together, it looks like she is warming up for her electioneering campaign.
Early this month, Reuters asked her predecessor, Leung Chun-ying, in Beijing about his ambition for a comeback. In reply, he listed the constitutional requirements for a Chief Executive candidate, adding: “So, I’m among millions of Hong Kong people who are eligible.”
Back in 1996 when asked whether he would go for the top job, Leung replied: “The answer is no. You may ask three or four times. The same answer remains valid for the ‘nth’ term of office.” In November 2011, he declared his candidacy for the third Chief Executive.
Given the track record, his latest remarks have been widely taken as a confirmation that he would join the fray, if Beijing allows. “I’ve not been exactly sitting on my hands in the past three years,” he said.
In fact, he has been far from sitting on his hands. He has acted more or less as a back seat driver after he stepped down in 2017. Leung has repeatedly denounced the Lam Administration for inaction over issues ranging from inadequate retirement protection to teachers’ undue political influence on campus. He even set up a fund to offer up to a million dollars each for informants on offences against the national security law.
Other potential candidates mentioned include Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po, former Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Norman Chan Tak-lam, and ex- Chief Executive of HKEX Charles Li Xiaojia.
A new-look 1,500-strong Election Committee is expected to be assembled by September. It could then effect changes in the 90-seat Legco polls to be further deferred to December. The selection of the Chief Executive will take place as scheduled in March 2022.
Future Chief Executive candidates will have to be nominated by at least 188 Election Committee members. A nominee will also need to secure the support from no less than 15 members from each of the five 300-strong sectors in the Election Committee.
In the 2017 election, the nomination threshold was 150. There was no additional requirement on minimum support from each sector. A committee member was allowed to nominate only one candidate. Lam ended up with 580 nominations. Her rivals, John Tsang Chun-wah and Woo Kwok-hing, managed 165 and 180 respectively. Executive Councillor Regina Ip Lau Suk-yee failed to reach the minimum to qualify.
Woo and Tsang relied on the 340-odd liberals on the then 1,200-seat Election Committee. Their supporters came mostly from the Second Sector of the professions and the Third Sector for labor, social services and religious groups. The plot has been revised and these two sectors alone will not be able to present a Chief Executive hopeful any more.
The four sectors will be revamped and a fifth is to be created specifically for NPC and CPPCC delegates and leaders of the Hong Kong branches of various All-China federations. As an additional safeguard, a panel will be appointed by the Chief Executive for political vetting of candidates at all levels.
The final line-up for the 2022 Chief Executive election will not be unveiled until about three months before polling day. It hinges on the Zhongnanhai masters’ prevalent preference of the day. The only certainty is that, unlike the previous elections, aspirants with even the slightest pro-democracy inclination are doomed to be screened out.
Beijing is no longer in the mood for political window dressing.
(Andy Ho is a public affairs consultant. A former political editor of the South China Morning Post, he served as Information Coordinator at the Chief Executive’s Office of the HKSAR Government from 2006 to 2012.)
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