Now that concerted efforts by the opposition parties to contest public offices are crushed, the next electoral assignment for the authorities is to put up a facade of democracy for the upcoming Legislative Council polls.

Functionaries of China’s Liaison Office are understood to have nudged individual non-aligned candidates in the last District Council elections towards contesting the Legco ballot exercise in December. Twenty openings are reserved for the ten new geographical constituencies. Under the fast-past-the-post system, the two most popular aspirants in each constituency are to take the seats.

The pro-establishment camp, which has consistently commanded about 45 percent of the ballots, are destined to secure at least half of the directly elected positions. Officials are eager to make the best out of the remaining ten seats for political optics. The script is written, they are now casting for the minor roles.

In 2019, about 15 percent of the 1,090 nominees branded themselves as independents of one sort or another to vie for the 479 seats across the 18 administrative districts. Many of them had failed to arrive at tactical arrangements with the “yellow” camp in their choices of constituencies and ended up confronting standard bearers of various pro-democracy groups. Only about five of such political lone wolves on friendly terms with the democratic lobby have emerged winners.

Chinese officials are said to be particularly interested in the losers in this pool of moderate non-aligned elements, who have, to various degrees, nursed the neighborhoods and are experienced in electoral campaigns. The Chinese authorities seem to be keen to encourage these politicians in the fringe to step forward for the Legco challenge. Even if they were defeated, they would serve to boost the perceived competitiveness, credibility, and thus legitimacy of the so-called “perfected” electoral reform in the aftermath of the social unrests over the past two years.

The most electable prospective legislators from the democratic base are now either behind bars or being prosecuted on national security charges for their roles in the unofficial primaries for the subsequently aborted Legco polls last September.

Their second liners will soon be disarmed en mass too. Under the new Public Offices (Candidacy and Taking Up Offices) (Miscellaneous Amendments) Ordinance 2021, all District Councillors will have to take an oath of allegiance next month. At the latest count, about 170 incumbents are expected to be disqualified in the process for their earlier involvements at different stages of the ill-fated democracy campaign. Offering their ward offices as voting stations for the primaries is reportedly a ground for dismissal.

The Democratic Party and the Civic Party have between them nearly 100 serving District Councillors. Their political careers are screeching to an abrupt end as they are set to be ousted in one go. Some members have already given up their posts ahead of the vetting formalities.

The Civic Party has virtually ground to a halt, while the Democratic Party is deeply divided on whether they should field candidates in the foreseeable future. The latter is buying time to preserve its party unity by deferring its collective decision to its supporters at large. The party is prepared to commission an opinion survey by September to gauge the public’s preferences before committing itself.

Former heads of the democratic flagship, including Emily Lau Wai-hing and Lee Wing-tat, are opposed to grace the elections with their party’s active participation. Professor Anthony Cheung Bing-Leung, a former vice-chairman of the Democrat Party who was later elevated to be Secretary for Housing and Transport, has taken a different view. “If a party, for a long time, does not take part in any elections, then what is the purpose of a party? " he asked, stressing that the party should continue to take part in elections irrespective of how the challenging the situation is.

Party Chairman Lo Kin-hei is said to be among a minority faction who agree with Cheung. They may end up splitting off from the mothership to put forward themselves as Legco candidates.

Yet, the irony is that there is no guarantee even for this third tier of potential candidates can stand.

They will have to first pass background checks by the police’s national security department. Their files will then be submitted to the Committee for Safeguarding National Security of HKSAR, headed by Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor with nine local senior officials, to be vetted again.

The show in any case will go on, even though it remains to be seen who will end up with the supporting roles.

(Andy Ho is a public affairs consultant. A former political editor of the South China Morning Post, he served as Information Coordinator at the Chief Executive’s Office of the HKSAR Government from 2006 to 2012.)

Andy Ho’s article can be found in our Columnist section.

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