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China fears the Five Eyes stare | Tom Rogan

蘋果日報 2020/12/20 09:59


China is increasingly concerned that Joe Biden’s accession to the U.S. presidency will consolidate alliance actions to constrain its aggressive behavior.
Front and center here, the Communists fear that the U.S.-led “Five Eyes” international security alliance will undertake common action to resist its bullying. That alliance is based on extremely close intelligence sharing and security cooperation between five nations; the U.S., Australia, Britain, Canada, and New Zealand. But in a notable editorial this week, Beijing’s favorite western-focus propaganda rag offered a long-winded complaint about the rising threat of Five Eyes constraint. According to the Global Times, “this overrated cabal of allies should watch for backstabbers in its own midst.” The editorial went on to explain how any effort to constrain China’s bullying was doomed for failure.
Beijing is right to be worried and wrong to offer such easy confidence that it can get its way.
While each of the Five Eyes member nations has different national interests, they share one common and very important interest. That being, the preservation of the rules-based democratic international order that was birthed in the aftermath of the Second World War. That shared understanding matters because it informs how these nations perceive what Australia is currently experiencing from China right now.
Suffering under a concerted and escalating Chinese trade war, Australian businesses are growing more concerned about their future sustainability. Prime Minister Scott Morrison is under pressure from voters to make concessions to Beijing in order to offset its trade onslaught.
Unfortunately for China, Australia’s allies are now moving to its side. They recognize that if Australia is left to face China’s economic pressure alone, Beijing will see its pressure as a viable means by which to resolve disputes with other nations. And that concerns the other Five Eye members in that they understand China’s threat is ultimately about much more than about trading ties. Instead, Beijing is using trading ties to broadcast its disappointment that Australia has abandoned its appeasement policy towards it. The Communists are furious with Australia’s rejection of escalated Chinese espionage and political influence efforts on its soil, Australia’s increasingly robust support for the U.S. Navy in the South China Sea, and Australia’s condemnation of Xi Jinping’s human rights abuses in Hong Kong, Xinjiang, and elsewhere. Put simply, China is trying to pressure Australia into abandoning its present track. And, by extension, showing the world that resisting China’s demands carries an unfordable price.
Fortunately, the Communists’ strategy is having the opposite effect it intends. Witnessing the great gall and arrogance with which Beijing is trying to subvert the democratic interests of the Australian people, the Five Eye allies are realizing that a line in the sand has to be drawn. That if they do not challenge China, here, it will soon be their own populations and interests which will soon come under the same or worse Communist pressure. That if they don’t stand together and strong now, they will all suffer separately and apart.
This poses China two significant problems.
First, it means Beijing’s facing a more significant risk of economic isolation from a larger number of nations. Second, Beijing faces the international disrepute born of five major democratic powers offering a single voice of resistance to what it is doing. China’s fear is that such a common voice would encourage other nations to join the Five Eyes and stand firm against Beijing’s bullying in other areas. That with time, the world will view Beijing’s offer of partnership as only the offer of a poisoned chalice from an untrustworthy server.
China’s most sensible option would be for it to adopt a more conciliatory stance with Australia. Were Beijing to suspend its trade war and make real its always-fake pledge of “win-win” cooperation, it might slowly draw Australia back into a concessionary policy. But such an approach would first require the Communists to look in the mirror and find cause for a new humility. Something that they are not well inclined to do.
So instead, we should expect more ranting complaints and erratic behavior from Beijing. And more and more nations to respond by joining together in resistance to the Communists’ aggression.
(Tom Rogan, Washington Examiner foreign policy writer)
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