Analysis: Taiwan's ousting of pro-China mayor may spell demise of the island's major opposition

蘋果日報 2020/06/07 12:18


The rapid rise and fall of Han Kuo-yu, who will soon be removed as mayor of Taiwan's third-largest city, may well be the last radiance of the setting sun for his century-old party Kuomintang (KMT) which once ruled much of China and shaped post-war Taiwan.

KMT insiders told Apple Daily that many in the party regret wasting their best chance to regain power by picking Han as the presidential candidate last year.

The KMT until last summer looked set to win the 2020 presidential election when the incumbent pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) was unpopular for failing to boost the island's stagnant economy. But Han's presidential bid ended in a huge defeat, winning just 38% of the votes while the incumbent Tsai Ing-wen from the DPP bagged 57%.

In Saturday's recall vote in the southern port city of Kaohsiung, where Han has served as mayor for 18 months, Han was voted out by an even bigger landslide number with 97.4% of voters hoping to expel him from office. The 939,090 votes for his removal even exceeded the 892,545 votes Han got when he was elected..

In response to the recall vote's result, KMT chairperson Johnny Chiang said his party respected the people's decision and that the KMT would not be absent in the upcoming by-election for the new mayor.

Jimmy Lai, founder of Next Media which has a major presence in the Taiwan media scene, also called Han's rise to power as "KMT's last hurrah".

"Han’s fall marks the end of KMT’s influence, as well as the influence of its half brother #CCP. #HKers and Taiwanese support each other!" Lai tweeted on Saturday evening.
In the span of two years, Han’s rise in popularity has been as swift as his downfall. Branded as the sole savior for his party by managing to snag the post as mayor in a city traditionally known as a DPP stronghold, those voters then deserted him, dealing a lethal blow to a party that has already been struggling to survive.

In retrospect, pundits seem to agree that Han's fall from grace was triggered by the moment when he announced last October, just months into his mayorship, that he would take three months off from the city government to run for president.

Many swing voters, particularly the young, were put off by what they saw as Han's overtly nationalistic narrative that embraces the "one China" notion and his sometimes vulgar remarks. This further entrenches the image many Taiwanese have in mind that KMT has become a party that has lost touch with its people. Despite having harped on about bringing real reform for decades, some have started to realise that those were all but empty promises.
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