Washington and Beijing have guns drawn on each other regarding Hong Kong’s National Security Law as both are on the verge of pulling the trigger. US Secretary of State Pompeo has met with a member of the Political Bureau of the CCP and the Director of the Central Foreign Affairs Office, Yang Jie-Chi, in Hawaii. At first, the meeting between the two officials went seemingly well with the possibility that the implementation of the National Security Law would be more gradual or maybe even as hollow as an “anti-secession law”. However, it has been stated that in case the talks between both parties broke down, the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress (NPC) might even consider a more stringent version of the National Security Law. So, what exactly happened? Xinhua News Agency reported yesterday that Pompeo and Yang Jie-Chi had engaged in a constructive dialogue, exchanged opinions, and clarified their positions regarding the issue. It also claimed that both parties had agreed to act according to the consensuses that were discussed in the meeting. This discretely implies that there was no common ground between the two, as both parties simply talked past each other. Nothing was achieved at the meeting, let alone an argument between the two. Sure enough, Xinhua Agency then submitted a manuscript of the NPC Legal Work Committee, stating that the “Port Area National Security Law Draft” had been submitted to the Standing Committee of the NPC for further deliberation.

The introduction of Hong Kong’s National Security Law disclosed by Beijing before the Annual Plenary Session of the NPC was to many completely out of the blue. This was even a surprise to both pro-establishment members and high-ranking government officials in Hong Kong. Subsequently, they have expressed their support for and views favorable to the law. From the end of May to the start of June, many citizens were utterly furious about the injustice that was served to them. Just two weeks after the revelation, the government has framed the law as beneficial to society and the public. The government has claimed that the National Security Law does not destroy the framework of “One Country Two Systems”, that Hong Kong would maintain its special economic and financial status in the long run, and that most citizens would not be affected by the implementation.

In the past week, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has responded mildly to various foreign inquiries about Hong Kong’s National Security Law, alleging that the enforcement of the National Security Law is strictly in accordance with the laws and will not infringe on the rights of the people, legal persons, or organizations and will thus protect Hong Kong’s special status as an important financial, trade and shipping hub. Hong Kong government officials have also adapted accordingly, guaranteeing Hong Kong police are ready to enforce the National Security Law, and that national security personnel are also subjected to the laws of Hong Kong.

US threat of sanctions causes rumors

Tam Yiu-Chung, a member of the Standing Committee of the NPC once wrote that Legislative Council members or candidates who oppose the National Security Law should be disqualified as they violate the Basic Law. In a day, he managed to contradict himself by pointing out that disqualification is against the wishes of the people and the government would strongly advise against this kind of action. The Deputy Chairman of the Basic Law Committee, Maria Tam, has unofficially claimed that the Central Government’s initiative to enact the National Security Law “is not a threat to Hong Kong”. She has also suggested that the Chinese government portrays Hong Kong as a long-term reclaimable special administrative region and would thus not intentionally sabotage the city.

There are noticeable subtle changes in official statements in comparison to the previous aggressive tone of government officials. Previously, government officials vowed to enact the National Security Law as soon as possible. So why have they reverted to appeasing the people? This is not due to the people’s opposition against this controversial law, as they would rather add oil to the fire and would more thoroughly ensure that the law will be enacted. Many western countries object to the enactment of the law, in contrast with ten less influential countries such as Syria, North Korea, etc. However, Beijing has strongly expressed that the National Security Law is a domestic issue and its decision will not be affected by foreign backlash. Yet, Luo Hui-Ning has publicly announced that he plans to “implement it resolutely” and “conscientiously honor it”. So, what has led him to do this? The only explanation is that American sanctions Chinese officials have acted as a deterrent, causing disagreement within the Communist Party, especially among top officials, and thus there are rumors that National Security Law legislation would be postponed. This certainly resulted in the declaration from Chinese officials, stating that the law would not affect investments made by Hong Kong and international corporations and that its main purpose was only to retain law and order in the city.

Strangest of all, Beijing recently announced that the agenda of the NPC Standing Committee did not include further clarifications on the National Security Law draft just two days before US media reported that Pompeo would be meeting Chinese officials to discuss the issues of Taiwan, the National Security Law in Hong Kong and the coronavirus pandemic. The impact of Trump’s threat of sanctions against Hong Kong in a press conference was clearly unprecedented. Many of US investments and businesses are in Hong Kong, and the importance of this international city to the US is self-evident. The implementation of the National Security Law may perhaps be a bargaining chip for Xi Jin-Ping to gain more favorable terms. This includes matters such as bilateral trade agreements, maintaining the pegged exchange rate of the HK dollar to the US dollar, as well as the abandonment of the claim that the pandemic originated in China. The US on the other hand will also need the time to withdraw all investments made in Hong Kong and guarantee the safety of all US citizens in Hong Kong. The negotiation took place in Hawaii, which shows that Beijing seeks an advantage in the bargaining game before the US gains the high ground.

Nevertheless, negotiations between Pompeo and Yang Jie-Chi have failed, which implies a genuine “mutual destruction”. Pompeo has returned to the White House empty-handed. Trump will be furious that things have not gone his way. Sino-US relations could only go in one direction: downhill all the way.

(Poon Siu To, veteran journalist)

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