【Second Opinion】China Goes for the Win (Mark Simon)
在全球陷入停工潮的同時,中國正在復工,或會使其在短時間之內成為各種製品的唯一供應商。
So folks want to sue China for the damage done by the Coronavirus. Good luck with that. Maybe a more realistic goal to consider is redirecting efforts so as to not allow China to benefit from the virus.
The Chinese Communist Party(CCP) controls 1.4 billion people. Going along with that mass of population is the largest consumer market in the world, the strongest military in Asia, and an aggressive foreign policy. The CCP is not going to get dragged into some US District Court or even the Hague to explain how they screwed up and sent a killer virus into our midst. The CCP doesn't care for the rule of law at home or abroad and they have the muscle not to care.
It's always depressing to see people lecture the CCP, not because the CCP or all of China doesn't need a good talking too, but because it always reminds me of some 23 year old Ivy League graduate explaining to a street thug why that street thug punching him in the face and taking his wallet lacks moral clarity.
The CCP has no only one concern, staying in power. That the CCP even bothers with public diplomacy has everything to do with threatening the world rather than trying to convince anyone of their position. Chinese propaganda is not about winning friends, it's about letting all know the consequences if the CCP is not happy. Why is China controlling the export of masks? More efficient distribution or quality control? Of course not, it's about rewarding lackeys and punishing those who stand firm. (Hence Canada is first in line getting masks).
What the CCP does care about at this moment, thanks in large part to super-nationalist Xi Jinping, is winning the race to become the dominant power in the world. The Coronavirus may well provide China the opportunity to leap over the US to become the world's leading economy as Xi pushes to engage China's economic engine while the West stalls.
In the past week I saw four merchandise exporters, focusing on either garments or household goods. The message is clear, China is opening back up. Factories are slowly crawling back to life. Orders from overseas are not flowing in as rapidly as anyone would like, but as one gent from a French retailer pointed out over cigars, every place but China is closed. Bangladesh is out. India and Turkey have largely shut shop. Across the world, if you want an order filled it's highly probable that a vendor in China is the only one open to fill it.
Same goes with agriculture. Shipments are starting again. Orders are increasing. As China comes back to life it will be China with the political power that accompanies buying power. Most importantly the Chinese domestic economy will be getting a jolt from Chinese monetary policy and de-regulation. (Probably not a win for Mother Nature)
The US and West face a choice, open back up and compete or watch China walk into an economic leadership position launching political unknowns that will, as we all know, end badly.
The Coronavirus is the opportunity Xi and the Chinese Communist Party are latching onto in turning a rescue mission of their own nation into an economic offensive. A nasty irony would be that China, which exported a virus through incompetence and cover-up, ends up as the world’s leading economic power because the United States and the West couldn't recognize that in a Cold War, pretty much everything is part of the battle if the other guy wants it to be.
China is cranking up its massive economy out of a desire for survival of the Party. An added bonus is an opening for a huge economic win if the US and the West continue to stand down. Maybe, if we consider China's global intentions as well as it being the provider of this virus, turning the economies of the US and the West back on is not all about short term gain.