Joe Biden was sworn in as the 46th US president on 20th January US time. The Biden era has officially been ushered in. The Biden administration will face a divided and confrontational society domestically and an international community equally so. Domestically, bringing the pandemic under control and promoting unity will remain the top priority, while internationally the US’s return to the international community and how US-China relations will be adjusted will attract all the attention.

In the trilateral relations between the US, China and Taiwan, the relationship between the US and China and the cross-strait relationship will both be affected by the US-China relationship. Such being the case, how the Biden administration will adjust the US-China relationship is more deserving of Taiwan’s heightened attention.

After Biden takes office, domestic issues will take precedence over other matters. Ronald Klain, Biden’s Chief of Staff, has pointed out that Biden’s inaugural address will focus on national unity and will contain messages about moving the nation forward. With the polarization of society and rising populism, the last US presidential election had been highly divisive since campaigning began, and there was even the storming of the Capitol by Trump’s supporters afterwards. US society has never been so divided since the American Civil War. Furthermore, since the COVID-19 pandemic has shown no signs of easing off in the US, this has also intensified the challenge facing President Biden when he seeks to contain the virus. In this light, the call for national unity in his inaugural address is aimed at putting an end to the division originating from the election and calling for unity in the face of the pandemic.

What is more deserving of international attention is whether US-China relations will undergo adjustments. Since Biden won the election, the future developments of US-China relations have been a topic of constant discussion. Biden himself, his government and the Democratic Party that he belongs to will not be as extreme as outgoing President Trump in their policies towards China.

However, the US and China’s relationship as competitors rather than cooperative partners is a basic setting that became fully established during Trump’s presidency, and the foundations for this setting are solid. It has become a consensus between the Democratic and Republican Parties that it is necessary to curb China’s aggressions in human rights, security and the economy. After Biden takes office, he will adjust the US’s relations with China under such a framework and consensus. That is why there will only be modest changes, while the overall direction of the competition will remain unchanged.

In contrast with Trump’s all-out efforts to target China, the Biden administration is expected to make two adjustments. First, his confrontation with China will be issue-oriented. Second, he will contain China through cooperation with the international community.

The so-called issue-oriented confrontation means that Biden will not launch a ferocious onslaught on China over every issue such as the economy and trade, security, fight against COVID-19, human rights and climate change. On security and the economy, Biden’s policies towards China will not undergo too much change. But on climate change and the fight against COVID-19, it is possible for the two countries to return to cooperation. Therefore, Biden’s policies towards China will continue to be sustained competition to a controllable extent, and there will be competition as well as cooperation. This will be the biggest difference between Biden and Trump.

Another adjustment will be the shift from unilateralism to multilateralism, which means that the US will return to the international community. The US will then restrain China with the strength of the international community. Joining a regional economic and trade agreement, such as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), a return to the Paris Accord, and even stepping up the relations with the US’s allies to strengthen the security and defense of the Indo-Pacific are Biden’s moves that can be expected.

Under these frameworks, will US-Taiwan relations also change? The answer is yes and no. There will be changes in interactions between the US and Taiwan, as they will not be as high-profile as in the Trump years. Trump’s policies towards Taiwan not only involved concrete interactions with Taiwan, but also smacked of a provocation of China. It is expected that Biden will review and adjust the US’s policies towards Taiwan to make them more pragmatic. What will not be changed is the concrete support for Taiwan’s participation in the international community and Taiwan’s national defense. In other words, the deepening of US-Taiwan relations is an ongoing trend, but there will be subtle changes in terms of the modes of interactions.

Antony Blinken, Biden’s nominee for Secretary of State, said publicly in a Senate confirmation hearing that the Biden administration will continue to honor its commitments to Taiwan, not only ensuring that Taiwan will be capable of defending itself, but also hoping that Taiwan will play an even bigger role internationally. However, when it came to the cancellation of restrictions on US-Taiwan interactions, he only said that the new administration would study the issue again. This is a clear indication that while the Biden administration’s support for Taiwan’s national defense and diplomacy will remain unchanged, the modes of interaction might.

With Biden officially in power, Taiwan should not only try its utmost to maintain the ever-deepening US-Taiwan relations during Trump’s presidency, but also watch Biden’s multilateralist moves. Apart from its values such as freedom and human rights, Taiwan must build its irreplaceable, important status in terms of its economy and security in the Asia Pacific. When Biden returns to multilateralism, Taiwan can only try to prove its worth in a multilateralist framework so that the US under Biden’s leadership is willing to maintain or even deepen its relations with us.

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