In my column last week, I pointed out that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is upping its rhetoric to threaten Taiwan because it wants to just demonstrate a tough attitude without using force against the island as it is not well prepared to go to war yet. This way, it can avoid embarrassment. However, this does not mean Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party-led government can do whatever it wants. Since the Korean War in the 1950s, no CCP leader has managed to occupy Taiwan by force, not because Taiwan has enough military strength, but because the CCP fears the US military will intervene. So far, China is still no match for the US in terms of military strength. But will this status quo last?

The relative military strengths of China and the US are undergoing changes. China is going to great lengths to build up its navy and is investing more money in the force compared with the US. James Fanell, former director of intelligence and information operations for US Pacific Fleet, told journalists that over the past five years, China has built five times as many military vessels as the US. Fanell estimated that by 2030, the Chinese navy will have more than 550 ships and submarines, while the US navy will still be struggling to reach the goal of possessing 350 to 355 ships.

According to Chinas digitaler Aufstieg, a report published in 2019 by the Berlin-based Mercator Institute for Chinese Studies (Merics), China filed 2.5 times more patents than the US in 2018. In the field of quantum cryptography, which carries great military significance, China has spent at least 10 times more on quantum R&D than the US, with estimates starting from USD50 billion.

When all the changes have reached a certain point, will the US betray Taiwan?

After China and the US established diplomatic relations in 1979, the US severed official ties with Taiwan and withdrew its troops from the island. The Sino-American Mutual Defense Treaty was replaced by the Taiwan Relations Act. US protection of Taiwan changed from military aid to arms sales, which involves the US providing Taiwan with defensive weapons. The US is to preserve its military power in the Western Pacific to prevent any acts of intimidation and coercion against Taiwan. Nevertheless, these do not amount to US commitment to defending Taiwan in case the island is attacked. If China attacks the island, will the US send troops to help defend Taiwan? Most US presidents have adopted a position of “strategic ambiguity”, which allows a certain degree of flexibility in Washington’s policy and forces China to do careful guesswork.

However, after Donald Trump became president, he broke the tradition and spoke to Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen on the phone. During his four-year term, the US has sold arms to Taiwan 11 times. The total amount of the sales, amounting to USD141.1 billion, is second only to the USD210 billion recorded during George W. Bush’s presidency. Trump signed the Taiwan Travel Act in 2018, and the House of Representatives passed the Taiwan Assurance Act in 2019. Some believe that US strategy towards Taiwan has moved from ambiguity to clarity.

In fact, Trump has not stated clearly whether the US will send troops to help defend Taiwan. If there is any degree of clarity, Beijing has probably been quite pleased with that, for Trump previously said Beijing’s oppression of human rights in Xinjiang and Hong Kong’s pro-democracy movement were China’s internal affairs. Former national security advisor John Bolton said Trump compared Taiwan to the tip of his Sharpies pen and China to the size of the large desk in the Oval Office.

Will other US presidents betray Taiwan? We can take reference from a choice made by George H. W. Bush. In 2019, some White House confidential documents related to the June 4 massacre in Tiananmen were declassified. They indicate that following the massacre, Bush had tried numerous times in vain to get hold of Deng Xiaoping through letters and phone calls. Bush then secretly sent his national security advisor Brent Scowcroft and deputy secretary of state Lawrence Eagleburger to Beijing to make direct contact with Deng.

Bush deemed that “a reasoned, carefully action” based on America’s long-term interests, when in fact he was being shortsighted and missed the great opportunity to punish the devil and restrain the CCP. A great pro-democracy movement that helped set the stage for the dramatic changes in the USSR and Eastern Europe and the end of the Cold War was thus betrayed by the US, aka the “beacon of freedom and democracy”.

For Chinese people, Taiwan is a role model of democracy. It is also a security hub with regard to America’s Indo-Pacific strategy. But that does not mean the US will necessarily send troops to safeguard Taiwan, especially if the Chinese military becomes strong enough to challenge the US, and if US leaders believe that making compromises is in line with the principle of pragmatic diplomacy.

In October, White House National Security Advisor Robert C. O’Brien said at the Aspen Security Forum that while China might not be ready to invade Taiwan, it could be capable of taking military actions against Taiwan in 10 to 15 years as its navy is growing consistently. If the US is unreliable, how should Taiwan protect itself in the 10 to 15 years to come?

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