During an interview with National Public Radio (NPR) from the U.S., Foreign Minister Joseph Wu Jaushieh mentioned the relationship of Taiwan with the U.S. has greatly improved, but it is at the moment not looking to establish a full diplomatic relationship. Coincidentally, James Stavridis, a retired United States Navy admiral and former commander of NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe who visited Taiwan and was received by President Tsai Ing-wen in 2018, has written an article, in which he pointed out if the U.S. diplomatically accepts Taiwan, it would cause the U.S., China, Asia-Pacific and Taiwan unpredictable and dangerous consequences. Beijing might launch a full attack on Taiwan.

Stavridis, who has always concerned about problems among the U.S., China, Taiwan and Hong Kong and is friendly with Taiwan also found, if the situation in Taiwan Strait is out of control, many countries might support Taiwan in intelligence, condemn China in the UN, financially sanction China, and the U.S. would also send military support to assist Taiwan and might even deploy air defense at the base of Guam or Taiwan. However, the U.S. is unlikely to use naval blockade or send ground troops to avoid a direct confrontation with China.

Admiral Stavridis’s analysis of the possible development of the U.S.-China-Taiwan triangle relationship and the Taiwan Strait situation was based on his political rationale and military professional knowledge. Unlike those so-called experts and politicians who predict the future with such certainty like a fortune teller, his prediction would be relatively closer to reality.

What Minister Wu said about Taiwan not looking to establish full diplomatic relations with the U.S. is obviously based on an analysis similar to that of Admiral Stavridis. Whether it is Taiwan “not looking to” establish diplomatic relations, or the U.S. has not planned to do so, is actually a rational decision to safeguard the biggest interest of both sides (or at least one side). It shows that, although the Taiwan Strait situation seems tense right now, both Taiwan and the U.S. have remained calm and rational. Tsai Ing-wen’s government has not become a pawn of the U.S., or shall we say, the U.S. has no intention of sacrificing this pawn. It will not ruin a game of chess that could exhaust China’s resources and stop it from rising to domination by having an avoidable battle.

The CCP has never given up on conquering Taiwan. The unification of both sides of the Strait is indeed the core target of Xi Jinping’s great nation revival dream, but he prematurely exposed his ambition of not only conquering Taiwan, but also dominating Asia and challenging the U.S., which has shocked people to realize China threat is far bigger than one can imagine and has already infiltrated into different regions and areas.

Trump’s aggressive anti-China approach, although consists of election element, but more importantly, has accurately stated the fear and disgust the Americans and other countries have on China. The global anti-China sentiment has been formed and quickly spread, probably more because of Xi’s impatience has ruined his own plan and got China in trouble, than Trump’s provocation.

Since Xi hoards most of the power in China and the regime is increasingly severe with suppressing people and controlling their thoughts and opinion, the CCP has to deal with serious internal power struggles and tries hard to maintain stability; now on top of that, as the anti-China atmosphere within the democratic world has taken shape, the CCP would also need to face economy, technology, intellectual properties, political and military containment and austerity from all over the world. Beijing has to resolve numerous problems internally and externally carefully, otherwise, its regime would disintegrate. Under these circumstances, the priority of the “Taiwan problem” has naturally dropped.

If the CCP unifies Taiwan using its military, it would equate to suicide. Even if it has forcefully taken Taiwan, apart from the heavy price it has to pay during the process, its global image would be completely tarnished and it would get all sorts of boycotts and sanctions. The impact would be far greater than that after the event on Jun. 4, 1989, and the suppression on Hong Kong’s democracy; even if the CCP could cope with international sanctioning, it might not be able to cope with the social chaos within the country caused by the worsening of the economy after sanctioning; even if it can handle the chaos for a while, China’s development would also ground to a halt, then substantially regress. All those 100th anniversaries of the party and of the PRC, would all become milestones of China’s tragedy under the rule of the CCP.

The U.S., China and Taiwan all know the truth very well. War does not fit into anyone’s interest and therefore no one wants to initiate it. Taiwan and the U.S. have already drawn the red line on some issues and that is why they have to be vigilant about the Taiwan Strait situation, but do not need to overly worry about it. However, Beijing seems to have reacted to the speeding-up U.S.-Taiwan interactions and intensified its military show-offs in Taiwan Strait, which it should have more restraint on. The latest statement from the Taiwanese government that it has “the right to self-defense and counterattack.” Regardless of how it is being interpreted, Taiwan will not and cannot just sit there and be surrendered. The CCP should not underestimate Taiwan’s determination and the price it has to pay for its reckless acts.

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