Hong Kong could become the next Tibet anytime (Edward Chin)
In this day and age, everyone is opinionated. In politics, it is the great divide. In mainland China, netizens longed to have a far outcry for more freedom, transparency and democracy; but under the power of the paramount leader Xi, freedom of speech was not given. Almost 31 years after the Tiananmen crackdown, a more democratic China does not exist. The Chinese Communist Party under Xi Jinping’s administration means more concentration of power.
With Emperor Xi and the politburo having a “wolf warrior” mentality towards Hong Kong, Taiwan and the rest of the world, the former normal “balance of power” has come to a point of no return.
Hongkongers are hard working and peace loving people who used a lot of sweat equity to make this international city great. The Tiananmen crackdown in 1989 was an indelible stain of modern China history. Those who left before the 1997 Handover took a leap of faith by immigrating to where they at the time considered to be greener pastures and then returned, and contributed back to Hong Kong. The former paramount leader of China, Deng Xiaoping, was a man of controversy. He promised after the Hong Kong Handover to China in 1997, “horse racing, dancing and parties will continue, and one could criticise the CCP, and even if you do, the Party would not topple.” Fast forward to a few decades after, i.e. 2020, the enactment of the National Security Law to Hong Kong brings lots of ambiguity of what it entails. Now a lot of Hongkongers are looking for alternatives. The strongest opposition to this draconian law by the CCP is expected to come, once more details are unfolded.
In 2019, we witnessed the Extradition Bill that the Hong Kong government tried to impose but was finally retracted. This time, it is the HK version of the National Security Law. When that is implemented, it will put our basic human rights and freedom at risk. People living in Hong Kong, not just locals, feel that they are “being held at gunpoint.” The enactment of the National Security Law equates to the bringing of “One Country, Two Systems'' to an abrupt end. The “experiment” fails after 23 years of trying, instead of letting it run till 2047. It is time to offload some “hard to sell” assets, remain liquid and think of alternatives.
It is an understatement to say that Hongkongers are still doing fine, when there are long lines of people at the banks enquiring on offshore bank accounts setups. The Hong Kong government, from Chief Executive Carrie Lam top-down, has failed to provide any levels of confidence for Hongkongers to stay calm and intact. After all, the National Security Law is ten times worse than the extradition bill, a nuclear bomb of sorts, putting Hong Kong’s autonomy at risk. People from Hong Kong are searching for information regarding offshore bank account openings in the UK, Singapore and Jersey, Channel Islands. They all want off-shore jurisdictions that are safe to park their money. This might just be their step one. After that, Hong Kong people may have to make a tougher decision: to leave or to stay behind.
It is sad to see Hong Kong’s autonomy fading quickly. Put it in investment terms categorically: CCP has abruptly issued “a put option with a near term expiry date to Hong Kong”, and there are no genuine takers of this issuance, buyers or sellers alike. Of course, the CCP and the Hong Kong government puppets argued there is no breach of the 1984 Sino-British Joint Declaration. As alluded to earlier, China now has a “warrior wolf” mentality, and everyone is waiting to see how the regime will make its “first strike”.
With uncertainty escalating in Hong Kong, it is worthwhile to look into the history of Tibet and see how it resembles the fate we are in right now. Tibet was once a separate independent nation. It had a defined territory and population, and the capacity to enter into relations with other recognised states. Tibet had its own currency, postal stamps and of course, the snow clad Tibetan flag. After the CCP took power of China in 1949, forty thousands strong Chinese army entered Tibet with Chairman Mao’s soldiers. A so-called “17 Point Agreement” was forced upon to the Tibetans. The Tibetan delegates were literally being held at gunpoint to sign the “agreement” in May 1951. Disaster strikes years afterwards.
To “neutralise” any resistance from the eyes of the CCP, Article 1 of the “17 Point Agreement” stated that “The Tibetan people shall write and drive out imperialistic aggressive forces from Tibet; the Tibetan people shall return to the big family of the Motherland.” Fast forward the time to 1959. The “occupation” and “cohabitation” was a faux, and the 14th Dalai Lama, leader of the Tibet people had to escape his native land. The Dalai Lama and thousands of Tibetans had to live in a life of exile in Dharamshala in India for 61 years until today, with other Tibetan refugees scattered globally. The current population size of Tibetans in exile is around 100,000 worldwide.
In the course of a fire-side chat with Hongkongers, the Tibetan history seems to be remote, as even the Tiananmen massacre was regarded too distant to the post 90s and millennials. It is important to note what follows afterwards in 1959, was a time of genocide and persecution of Tibetans by the CCP. Nearly 1.2 million out of a Tibetan population of 6 millions died through armed conflict and famine – a cultural genocide. Tibetan kids were taken to Chinese orphanages for “re-education”. History always repeats itself. The CCP tries to rewrite history in Hong Kong and the attack will come at all fronts. “National education” will be speeded up.
Last year, Hong Kong people’s battle against the extradition bill for freedom and democracy had not been easy. Then there came COVID-19. Now, CCP wants full control of Hong Kong with the National Security Law. The “One country, Two systems” draws close to an end faster than anticipated. There might soon be “secret police” more explicitly everywhere, with a despicable group of riot police and elite “raptor” squads with no real identification already ruling over Hong Kong. Demonstrators pinned to the ground by the police with deadly force on a demonstrator’s neck might be the new normal; pepper sprays, batons and more deadly weapons will be used. Things look gloomy. In the most extreme situation, CCP might lock down Hong Kong. That is why we should all “speak very loudly” right now and let the world know about our situation in Hong Kong. This goes beyond to whether we can save Hong Kong as a financial centre. Let us fight very hard to preserve our core values, language, freedoms and heritage.
(Edward Chin runs a family office. Chin was formerly Country Head of a UK publicly listed hedge fund, the largest of its kind measured by asset under management. Outside the hedge funds space, Chin is Convenor of 2047 Hong Kong Monitor and a Senior Advisor of Reporters Without Borders (RSF, HK & Macau). Chin studied speech communication at the University of Minnesota, and received his MBA from the University of Toronto. Twitter: edwardckchin Youtube: Ed Chin Facebook.com/edckchin Email:
[email protected])
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