In my column last week, I wrote that Xi Jinping was in no rush to “liberate Taiwan,” and nor will he take advantage of the U.S. election chaos to attack Taiwan, as experts feared.

Recently, there has been good news to ensure the security of the Taiwan Strait. After months of coordination, the U.S. Senate and House Armed Services Committee have reached the final agreement on the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021 (NDAA FY21) on Dec 3rd. This year’s bipartisan NDAA conference agreement established the Pacific Deterrence Initiative (PDI), which will send a strong signal that America is deeply committed to defending its interests in the region. The conference summary also indicated that the provisions of the NDAA prohibit the commercial exports of covered defense articles and services, and covered munitions items to the Hong Kong Police, as well as, reaffirm commitments to and support for various allies and partners, including Taiwan, the Baltic states, India, Vietnam, and Japan. The summary also highlighted that in addition to establishing the PDI and protecting American assets from Chinese industrial espionage, support for Taiwan and defense for Hong Kong are new strategies to deter security challenges from China.

Although the NDAA FY21 is still pending approval by the U.S. president to sign into law before it can take effect, the message it conveys is consistent with the U.S. approach to security in the Taiwan Strait in recent years: be as tough as possible with China. This position includes, at a minimum, an expansion of arms sales to Taiwan, strengthening Taiwan-U.S. diplomatic exchanges and statements on security in the Taiwan Strait.

For now, this stance is enough to discourage Beijing from attacking Taiwan. Many people in Taiwan are not only worried that Tsai Ing-wen has caused instability in the Taiwan Strait, but are also concerned that Trump’s over-exhaustion of Taiwan will anger Beijing. In 2016, Xi Jinping personally threatened that if Taiwan does not recognize the 1992 Consensus, relations between the two straits would be “on shaky ground.” In 2017, the Chinese embassy minister in the U.S. Li Kexin declared, “The day an American navy ship docks in Kaohsiung is the day the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) unites Taiwan with military force.”

In fact, the 1992 consensus is increasingly despised by the people in Taiwan, and U.S.-Taiwan relations have long exceeded the bottom line drawn by Li Kexin. Following Secretary of Health and Human Services Alex Azar’s visit to Taiwan in August, Under Secretary of State for Economic Growth, Energy, and the Environment Keith Krach traveled to Taiwan in September, making him the highest-ranking U.S. official to visit Taiwan since 1979. Both Taipei and Washington have repeatedly challenged Beijing, which provoked a military backlash from Beijing, sending military aircraft to frequently disturb Taiwan. So far, however, these efforts have been little more than fancy poses, and are still far from unifying Taiwan.

There are many reasons why Beijing chooses to be forbearing, and the tough attitude of the U.S. is the most important factor. Xi Jinping will not take any risk to enter a state of war with the U.S. So how reliable is the U.S. as a protective umbrella for Taiwan?

Not only has the Trump administration frequently broken through conventional ways in its relations with Taiwan, but previous analyses have suggested that he needs a war in order to be re-elected. Military friction with China in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait is called one of the options in the analysis.

Trump has done whatever it takes to stay in the White House, with the exception of using war. In fact, he is one of the American presidents who has fought the fewest wars and withdrawn the most troops during his presidency. For this reason, some people praised him for his love for peace while others criticized him for being a coward. In any case, he is one U.S. president who is the most nonchalant about his so-called great power responsibilities and international image. Many people think that Trump’s tactics are chaotic but he has never been confused in this regard.

Trump once described the pro-democracy movement in Hong Kong as “riots,” and publicly stated that “Hong Kong is a part of China, they’ll have to deal with that themselves. They don’t need advice.” Xi Jinping knew very well that Trump will not fight for human rights and freedom in Hong Kong and prevent him from implementing the National Security Law.

In his new book “The Room Where It Happened: A White House Memoir,” John Bolton who served as the former national security advisor for Trump, disclosed that “When Xi Jinping explained to Trump why he was building concentration camps in Xinjiang, Trump said that Xi should go ahead with building the camps, which Trump thought was exactly the right thing to do.” Bolton added that one of Trump’s favorite comparisons was to point to the tip of one of his markers and say, “This is Taiwan,” then point to his desk in the Oval Office and say, “This is China.”

Xi Jinping and Trump share a common trait, that is, bullying and fear of the strong. They will back down from anything that really requires them to make a sacrifice. Therefore, Xi Jinping will not take the risk of betting if Trump will really go to war with China to protect Taiwan? If he really does make a wager, the fate of Taiwan will be unpredictable. Fortunately, so far, all the U.S. needs to do is make a strong statement, and that will be enough to prevent Beijing from using military force, in exchange for security in the Taiwan Strait.

Trump is making history as the U.S. president who brought fantasy to many people. So, will Xi Jinping be able to see through the Biden administration as well?

(Chang Ping, commentator)

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