Gallup’s most recent national survey, conducted after the Biden administration came into the office for a month, tapped public views of other countries and support for establishing an alliance. Surprisingly and unsurprisingly, there are two noteworthy points about this poll: 1) favorable opinion toward China hit an all-time low, lower than the number after the Tiananmen Square Massacre; 2) Taiwan is included in the survey, and most Americans showed high favorability of Taiwan as an ally.

On the view of China, in February 2021, public favorability of China in the U.S. was 20%; unfavourability was 79%. The results are surprising considering the sea changes in public opinion in the past two years. In the same survey in 2018, the favorability of China was 53% compared to 45% of those who held an unfavorable view. The results are also unprecedented when put in a historical context. The favorability of China took a deep dive from 64% to 34% after the massacre following the Tiananmen Square protest, but that 34% was still much higher than the 20% now. Unfavorable views of China also did not distinguish across party lines: 10% of Republicans were favorable of China, compared to Democrat’s 27% and Independent’s 22%.

What happened to the public perception of China in the last two years that gives rise to these seismic changes in public opinion? Gallup offers two possibilities – the outbreak of the pandemic and the new administration’s plan to counter China with allies. The Biden administration has been giving most of its attention to reviving the economy, distributing the COVID-19 vaccines, and fighting the spread of the COVID 19 pandemic. This new poll would give the administration more confidence to pursue these objectives without China’s help and, be specific, not to rely on China for these objectives. As of now, Biden has signed several executive orders to examine the flexibility, security, and diversity of supply chains of several key industries which may overtly dependent on “certain countries.” China is the exact target, as those orders clearly call for closer cooperation with allies and friends that share similar values.

In relationships with allies and friends, Gallup polled the public on favorability toward several countries worldwide. Interestingly, the survey this time included questions on Taiwan. In the past 40 years, Gallup only polled the favorability of Taiwan seven times – five times prior to 2006 and once in 2017. Public favorability of Taiwan hovered around 60% before 2006. In both polls in 2017 and 2021, favorability crossed over to 70%.

Public support for Taiwan is even more remarkable when put in a cross-national comparison. The public is most favorable of Canada and the U.K., with percentages of 92% and 91%, respectively, followed by Japan, Germany, and France, each rated over 80%. Taiwan’s percentage is roughly on par with Israel’s and India’s 77% and higher than Mexico’s 65%. On the other hand, the favorability of Palestine was only 30%, with Russia and China trailing behind with 20%. Iran and North Korea were at the bottom with around 10%. The results match nicely with conventional understandings of U.S. public perception toward other countries, based on criteria such as national interests and shared values.

Also worth noting is that in the polls in 1996 and 2006, about 17% of respondents did not provide an answer when asked about their view of Taiwan, which shrank to 3% in this survey. As a result, the positive views of Taiwan in this survey do reflect what most of the public think. Among partisans, 71% of Republicans favored Taiwan, compared to Democrat’s 73%, and Independent’s 74%. Taken together, similar to the public disfavored of China, public support for Taiwan is a consensus across party lines.

China has been ramping up its propaganda campaign to shore up its image worldwide by devoting massive investment to pro-Beijing media and research institutes. However, more reports have shown that Chinese infiltration into educational institutions and media outlets and a slew of legal and illegal activities in the grey zones have failed to deliver their intended goals. Under Xi’s cracking down on news media, journalists now have to forgo their freedom of reporting in China, and the situation is only worsened with an exodus of foreign media and journalists. These developments led Biden to call China a strategic competitor (formerly used to address the Soviet Union). The polls show that such policy is indeed supported by the public and will likely continue.

China’s self-defeating actions, aimed at consolidating its political power, put Taiwan at an advantage. With the inflow of international media to Taiwan, international society now has more opportunities to learn about it. The increased international exposure will help foreign citizens and politicians build connections and establish cooperation with Taiwan on the grounds of shared values.

Granted, as we have illustrated in a previous piece, the influence of public opinion on foreign policy is indirect; public opinion itself changes and updates over time with new information. Nonetheless, public opinion is an important source of information for the government, which could undoubtedly move a country’s foreign policy when combined with government policy and interactions between both societies at the governmental and civilian levels. We see this happening in U.S.-Taiwan relations. This week, the American Institute in Taiwan has started helping the Taiwanese government increase domestic pineapples’ sales. Meanwhile, Taiwan’s TSMC is working on building infrastructure in Arizona. As long as these interactions continue to last, it is likely that Taiwan’s image will only continue to improve among the citizens in the U.S., unleashing a virtuous cycle of bilateral relations.

(Austin Wang ([email protected]) is Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas. Twitter: @wearytolove

Fang-Yu Chen ([email protected]) is PhD in Political Science at Michigan State University. Twitter: @FangYu_80168

Yao-Yuan Yeh ([email protected]) is Associate Professor of International Studies and Chair of the Department of International Studies and Modern Languages at the University of St. Thomas, Houston. Twitter: @yeh2sctw

Charles K.S. Wu ([email protected]) is PhD candidate of Political Science at Purdue)

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