Following the Secretary to Health and Human Services, the U.S. Under Secretary recently also visited Taiwan. Although the two countries have not started negotiating any economic and trading cooperation as everyone predicted, one of the top U.S. officials meeting President Tsai Ing-wen publicly was still like a heavyweight bomb-dropping onto the safe stage of cross-strait diplomacy. Suddenly, the triangle relationship between China, Taiwan, and the U.S. and their interaction afterward have again become the focus of the Indo-Pacific region.

One of the key factors is the official reason this U.S. senior official visiting Taiwan being to attend the memorial service of former President Lee Teng-hui. Lee belonged to the mainstream Kuomintang (KMT) and was the first Taiwan born and bred president of the Republic of China; Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which has risen and expanded during the 80s and 90s and in the end got the power by using the tactic of surrounding the central government with local influences, seems very likely to remain in power for a long time after getting into the president office twice and is leading the Legislative Yuan and Control Yuan. All these, many people from the blue camp believe, have something to do with Lee being in power and the KMT party machine at the time.

Then around 2000, the competition was fierce between the blue and green camps, and people were arguing whether Lien Chan or Chen Shui-bian would become the successor of Lee. Judging by the election result at the time, it was only the power from KMT’s light green sector being transferred to DPP’s light green sector. With Lee being the central hub, both blue and green camps were edging towards the middle, the light green area. Chen’s so-called “one country on each side” and Lee’s “two-states theory”, even their symbols are very similar.

With the spotlight being mainly on these two people, Tsai Ing-wen has also started to be known. Similar to Ma Ying-jeou, Tsai entered the Taiwan political stage and public eye with her profound academic background and professional bureaucratic image. In fact, looking at the election result, Tsai is so far the most successful leader of DPP since the party was founded; more interestingly, she is also the party leader with the shortest time in the party but the longest tenure. Her political experience shows Tsai herself represents KMT and its officials, the whole generation of political talent, led and inspired by Lee, heading towards localism.

To conclude the above, by attending the memorial service, the U.S. Department of State has signaled its support on the Lee-Tsai route Taiwan is heading, which is no doubt a huge sign and has caused a series of responses from Beijing in terms of political, diplomatic and military. If Trump gets re-elected, whether Taiwan’s problem between China and U.S. would come to a head has been seen as the hot spot of West Pacific or even global safety, and the wrestling of great powers.

The strong words from China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Taiwan Affairs Office can no longer generate much concern from all parties. During this sensitive time, not only the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) having actions at the Eastern and Southern Theater Command, but the Ministry of National Defense has also clearly stated it would take action targeting the Taiwan Strait situation. I fear, the discussion of “Taiwan Strait midline” would not mean much. Actually, whether it is according to the constitution or the legal system of the Republic of China or the People’s Republic of China, there is no border between two Straits; in view of the military unit and public power from both sides, from the legal basis to actual operation, there has not really been a midline in the past decades. All have been dictated by strength.

Back in the days, Taiwan’s Black Cat Squadron and Black Bat Squadron were the airpower using Taiwan as a base and spying on China’s military status for the U.S. Never mind the Strait midline or mainland’s waters/air space, there were combat actions deep in the other’s territory. PLA has also performed intercepting actions numerous times with Hongqi-2 anti-aircraft missiles and fighter jets such as J-6 and J-7.

From the 1950s to 1970s, which means within these 20-30 years, combat actions between two parties were mostly in the air space or deep inside the mainland because of the sea and air advantage at the east side of the Taiwan Strait; how much should one press towards the west from the balance line depends on the technical level of the national military aircraft and reconnaissance aircraft and operational needs. Because of their equipment, strategy, skills, training and resources, PLA mostly responds passively only.

During the 1980s and 90s when the winner of the cold war was about to be decided, due to internally, many deaths of the same generation such as Chiang Kai-shek and Mao Zedong and externally, Washington roped in Beijing to fight against the Soviet Union; cross-strait fights were much more restrained; Since 2000, due to the change of both sides' strategic balance, Taiwan’s situation on diplomacy, skills and capital could not match with China; therefore more military actions at sea and in the air from the PLA towards Taiwan and its islands have become the norm.

The bottom line is, Lee bought in a large amount of F-16 fighter aircraft, AH-1W SuperCobra attack helicopters, Perry-class guided-missile frigates, and Patriot air defense missile system from Bush Senior because he wanted to seize the opportunity of “anti-CCP window” between the event on Jun. 4, 1989 and the end of the cold war; moreover, the industrial development during the 1980s to 90s has left Taiwan handsome fiscal reserves.

What difficult for Taiwan nowadays is how to promote strong economic development without relying on ECFA. If Taiwan is not qualified to be an ally of the U.S. in terms of its industries and competitiveness, just by the resonance of their ideology and the emotional connection among both people, the nature of the Taiwan-U.S. relationship would be hard to change. Regardless of whom Washington is sending to visit Taiwan, we can see the path of building official diplomatic relations with the U.S. in the future would not be smooth. The key lies in Taiwan’s economic and financial conditions and its related defense strength.

(Hui Ching, Research Director of Hong Kong Zhi Ming Institute)

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