Recently Taiwan has frequently appeared on the international stage. For one thing, China’s military aircraft have been disturbing Taiwan while U.S. aircraft have come to the island’s assistance. The other day, a delegation from the Czech Senate made a high-profile visit to Taiwan. In addition, Taiwan and the U.S. have issued a joint statement on 5G security, and the U.S. State Department has announced that it will hold an annual economic and commercial dialogue with Taiwan. Besides, Taiwan, the U.S., Japan and EU has held a forum on supply chain restructuring, and the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) has unveiled historical records on numerous Taiwan-U.S. military exercises and collaborations.

All these have of course incurred the wrath of Beijing, which responded with harsh criticisms. At a time when the U.S. and China are locked in confrontation, we should pay attention to the new characteristics of the development of Taiwan-U.S. relations and how these characteristics are related to America’s Indo-Pacific strategy.

First, the fact that AIT has taken the initiative to release photos of joint military exercises held by Taiwan and the U.S. implies the U.S. no longer regards Taiwan-U.S. military and security cooperation as an unspeakable taboo. It could also be Washington’s subtle attempt to dismiss concerns of some politicians and rumors that “the U.S. military will not go to Taiwan”.

In addition, AIT’s director William Brent Christensen has for the first time attended the annual event for soldiers killed by Chinese bombing in 1958 on Kinmen. One may imagine that if the U.S. is to come to Taiwan’s help, the scope of the assistance would be broader than the scope covered by the Sino-American Mutual Defense Treaty signed in 1954.

The U.S. State Department’s move to hold an annual Taiwan-U.S. economic and commercial dialogue indicates the U.S. has elevated the level of its official dialogue with Taiwan, not least because the new platform involves senior-level economic strategic conversation. This platform is essentially different from the Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA), which focuses on specific topics and has a specific scope and objectives, and from the bilateral free trade agreement (FTA) talks that involve cross-border trade of goods and services.

The State Department noted that the dialogue will touch upon issues related to technology and medical supply chains, intellectual property rights, energy, and infrastructure. This means the dialogue will be held in parallel with the Office of United States trade Representative’s TIFA meeting and will put more emphasis on specific industries. It is not just another FTA meeting.

Right after the State Department’s announcement on the dialogue platform, Taiwan, the U.S., Japan and EU held a forum on supply chain restructuring. It was also reported that Taiwan and the U.S. may hold an economic and commercial dialogue in September. This suggests America’s current concerns regarding Taiwan include industrial transformation and supply chain restructuring.

The U.S. system is different from that of Taiwan. Taiwan’s Ministry of Economic Affairs is responsible for industrial affairs. In the U.S., such matters are managed by various departments, namely the State Department, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative Office, the Department of Commerce, and the Department of Treasury. As an example, the U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue, which has already been suspended, was headed by the Secretary of the Treasury. Apart from TIFA, which is an existing Taiwan-U.S. economic dialogue platform, the annual meeting of the U.S.-Taiwan Business Council also plays an important role. Nonetheless, the council zeroes in on issues related to the national defense industry. Also, there is no platform facilitating Taiwan-U.S. strategic communication on economic issues. The new platform set up by the State Council, therefore, serves to fill the void.

Shortly before the State Department’s announcement on the dialogue platform, State Secretary Mike Pompeo proposed the Clean Network Program. On the face of it, the plan is to eliminate the cyber presence of Huawei and China in the U.S.. Most importantly, however, Washington is now making an effort to establish a circle of trust. So far, Japan, Australia, Britain, Taiwan, Israel, Singapore and some European countries have joined the circle. Following the outbreak of border conflicts between India and China, India banned Chinese apps including Tiktok. The U.S. then followed suit. This suggests the circle of trust has expanded to include India.

Meanwhile, the restructuring of supply chain is one of the most important issues, in view of the fact that the said forum on supply chain restructuring involved Japan, Australia and India. The forum also says something about the close relations between countries in the circle of trust. In other words, the trust between these countries finds expression not only in the realm of the internet but also supply chains.

In this regard, we can say the joint statement between the U.S. and Taiwan on 5G security and the Taiwan-U.S. economic and commercial dialogue are not simply related to Taiwan-U.S. relations, but are also part of America’s Indo-Pacific strategy to establish a circle of trust between allies.

The other day, Pompeo remarked that the U.S. is now in competition with China not only in military security but in all aspects. He also commented on speculations that the quadrilateral security dialogue may lead to the establishment of an Asian NATO. Over the past 70 years, the U.S. has built up a security framework supported by its allies. This implies an Asian version of NATO will involve a very different operation concept than the original NATO, and establishing it will be no straightforward task. To be sure, though, the U.S. is indeed building a circle of trusted partners, and the scope of this circle will encompass security, economic and production issues and the internet.

Taiwan is considered part of this circle of trust, and it is also a key component of industrial supply chains. As such, it has to be included in discussions on economic and strategic issues related to supply chains, infrastructure and energy security. To this end, it is necessary to establish a new dialogue platform.

To a certain extent, the circle of trust is in a similar vein as the economic cooperation circle established by the U.S. in the 1950s, which ran along the north-south axis of the Western Pacific. Through that circle, the U.S. successfully talked Japan into going southward rather than westward. Consequently, a framework of division of labor among different U.S. allies in the Asia-Pacific region came into being in the 1980s.

At present, the U.S. is trying to develop a China-free circle of trust that integrates security, economy, technology and production. Taiwan has been pushed closer to the frontline and its strategic significance greatly enhanced. By unveiling its “Six Assurances” for Taiwan, the State Department is showing China and other countries the content of the “Six Assurances” and telling them the assurances do exist. This indicates that Washington’s previously unclear strategy has now become clear. All these changes are meant to pave the way for a new cold war in the Indo-Pacific region.

Where will Taiwan-U.S. relations go? To answer this question, we may have to first study the Indo-Pacific strategy pursued by the U.S. and its allies who take part in the quadrilateral security dialogue. After all, it was under such a framework that Taiwan’s expectations of the U.S. built up gradually. To understand the future direction and substance of Taiwan-U.S. relations, the key lies not in an understanding of U.S.-China relations, but of Washington’s Indo-Pacific strategy and the new cold war regional framework the U.S. intends to create.

Taiwan-U.S. relations are moving to a new stage. Such is one result arising from the new cold war framework of the Indo-Pacific region that is still taking shape. The Wuhan virus has served to accelerate this process. This is something we must not overlook.

(Lai I-chung, member of the executive board of Taiwan Thinktank)

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