Five games on the world stage in 2022 (6)| Mr. Tregunter
Will Xi Jinping step down or renew his term of office next year? There is no regulation of renewal of office term for the General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and Chairman of the Central Military Commission, while it was stipulated in the Deng Xiaoping era that only two consecutive terms of office were allowed for the President of the People’s Republic of China. Jiang Zemin was the Chairman of the Central Military Commission for 15 years. However, in 2018, Xi amended the constitution, revoking the limitation imposed on the office term renewal of the President. Then, it is anticipated Xi aspires to two more terms, or even a lifetime post.
If he is to renew his term of office two more times, which means he is to be in office longer than Jiang and Hu Jintao, support from within the Party for his move will be needed, despite the constitution having been amended. In theory, he has to show more significant achievements.
As for the economy on the mainland, it is a middle-class one with low wage rates, which Li Keqiang seems to disagree with. In terms of diplomacy, currently encountering confinement by the western countries led by the US, the CCP is way more seriously isolated than it was in the Cold War era. So, some commentary opined that the last item left should be military feats.
The US has recently had its classified military intelligence leak out inadvertently. The document shows that during the Cross-Strait crisis in 1958, the US armed forces planned to launch nuclear attacks on CCP’s air bases. The record leaking out under the current situation means a serious warning. What’s more, recently, Taiwan military forces have disclosed that the US armed forces are training in the island; the nominee of US Assistant Secretary of Defense has spread the words to public that Special Forces will be deployed to help beef up the defense of Taiwan; joint agreements concerning Cross-Strait relations have been issued by G7, the US and Japan, and the EU and Japan. All this has shown the current Cross-Strait tension is not of the common run.
Superpowers engaging in vaccine diplomacy contest
Biden demanded the other day a report on the origin of COVID-19 sent to his desk in 90 days by intelligence organs. The so-called intelligence organs are comprised of 18 bodies including the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), 9 institutions under the Department of Defense such as the NSA (National Security Agency), and 7 arms like the Bureau of Intelligence and Research (INR) under the Department of State and the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), an independent institution. The report is of short- and long-run value. Superpowers are engaging in a vaccine diplomacy contest for now. Once a country confirms which vaccine it is going to go for, it will not switch to another one easily. Now that Biden has requested in a high-profile manner the intelligence organs to join hands to find out the origin, naturally other countries will be prone to go for vaccines from America.
It is already fall 90 days later. Next year will see critical moments as the 20th National Congress of the CCP will probably be held in fall 2022. If the report is equivocal, it will only curb CCP’s vaccine diplomacy in the short run. If it carries a relatively clear conclusion, it will give rise to a chaotic situation and intensify pressure in the medium term.
The CCP emphasized what is happening in Myanmar should be handled in an ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) mode. Bluntly put, it is to be handled by the leader of East Asia. Though Myanmar is not part of the first island chain, its position on the periphery of the chain facilitates a breakthrough in a fight.
Besides, Taiwan is the one that bears the brunt of damages caused by the breakthrough. Once Taiwan is lost, the entire island chain will fall apart, or even other countries will turn the guns around. When the area is on the verge of war, powers will be centralized. The higher the pressure caused by changes in the situation, the higher the probability of a country risking danger in desperation. If one or two outlying islands are seized, that will be an overwhelming military feat. Is it worth a gamble?
“As I conquered the east and climbed the Jieshi mountain, I watched the boundless ocean.” (A poet named The Sea by Cao Cao, Chinese warlord, statesman and poet in the Three Dynasty Period of China)
Click
here for Chinese version
We invite you to join the conversation by submitting columns to our opinion section:
[email protected]Apple Daily reserves the right to refuse, abridge, alter or edit guest opinion columns for accuracy, length, clarity, and style, and the right to withdraw and withhold columns based on the discretion of our editorial page editors.
The opinions of the writers do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the editorial board.
---------------------------------
Apple Daily’s all-new English Edition is now available on the mobile app:
bit.ly/2yMMfQETo download the latest version,
Or search Appledaily in App Store or Google Play