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The June 4 led to a New Cold War (Wang Dan)

蘋果日報 2020/06/05 14:57


31 years ago, the “89 Democracy Movement” which aimed at ending the corruption within the Communist Party and having democratic reforms swept across China. The military coup launched by Deng Xiaoping, later turned the movement into a massacre, which was known as the “June 4 Crackdown.”
When we are looking back at the historical event 31 years ago, we should first distinguish the “89 Democracy Movement” with the “June 4 Crackdown.” Theoretically, it was “June 4 Crackdown” that ended the Cold War back then and then started the New Cold War now.
The revolution of 1989 in the Eastern Europe resulted in the end of totalitarian communist rule in Eastern Europe. Followed by the dissolution of the former Soviet Union, the Cold War came to an end. By then, world history stepped into a new era.
Scholars agreed that what happened in the PRC in 1989 startled the whole world, especially the rulers of those communist states. They realised that although CCP managed to stabilise the situation, it received severe reprimands and sanctions, and paid a heavy price. Mikhail Gorbachev, the last leader of the Soviet Union, and leaders of the communist states in Eastern Europe sought to undergo revolution peacefully through communicating with dissents instead of suppressing them. The courage of the Chinese brought more support to liberty and democracy. It was also one of the critical reasons that ended the cold war and why Liberal Democracy won.
CCP regained legitimacy with economic growth
Looking back at that piece of history, that world-shaking massacre sowed the seed of the New China-U.S. Cold War unconsciously. Why do I say that?
First, the CCP paid a heavy price due to the “June 4 Crackdown.” It allowed “refined totalitarianism” rulers, such as Deng Xiaoping, to realize the need to make use of economic development to rebuild the fragmented legitimacy of the regime and to reconnect with the world.
After Deng Xiaoping's southern tour in 1992, the CCP further threw off the yoke of ideology.
They “boost the economy at all costs” on the foundation of “maintaining stability at all costs” (quoted Wu Guoguang). As a result, the PRC replaced the former Soviet Union and became the top totalitarian communist state with both the economic strength and military power to stand against the democratic powers of the world. Especially after Xi Jinping wielded the power, CCP is now willing and has already had the power to or has already put its global expansion scheme in effect, raising the guard of the U.S. and causing its confrontation.
We can smell the smoke of the New Cold War. If we trace back to its origin, the “June 4 Crackdown” sowed the seed of it and gave the ability to the CCP to begin the war. We witnessed the end of the cold war and noted the beginning of a new cold war in these 31 years. The first ended due to the misjudgement of the Western countries led by the U.S., and the second one started due to their efforts to amend their misjudgement. Regardless, they are accountable. They thought that CCP would learn a lesson from the “June 4 incident”. They thought that CCP would focus on economic development. And They thought that CCP would have democracy once there is economic development. These are all misjudgements.
No sanctions imposed as the West misjudged the CCP
Because of all the misjudgments, countries such as the U.S. did not implement sanctions against the CCP in 1989. In contrast, they restored their diplomatic ties and aggressively assisted the CCP in developing its economy shortly after 1 or 2 years. The U.S. evaluated and now realised her mistakes. We see that the Republican Party and Democratic Party came to a consensus of adopting an inhibiting strategic approach against the PRC. The new China-U.S. Cold War is gradually forming. It is better late than never. And we should never forget the misjudgment 31 years ago that brought us all the way to today’s New Cold War. And the origin of the New Cold War can be traced back to the “June 4 Crackdown” in 1989.
Not only did the “June 4 Incident” turn the page of world history, it also influences our life today remarkably.
(Wang Dan is founder of the think tank Dialogue China.)
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