Former U.S. National Security Advisor Bolton pointed out in his new book that Taiwan may be the next place to be given up by Trump. Local Taiwanese at large react to this comment with a sneer, because most of them regard Trump's strong stance against China and "he must support Taiwan" as the same thing, that is, "anti-China" is tantamount to "pro-Taiwan". In fact, those familiar with international relations will agree that the reality is the U.S. can go "anti-China" without going "pro-Taiwan".

Logically, if Taiwan is determined to preserve its status quo as politically independent from China, it is inevitable for Taiwan to maintain a friendly and cooperative attitude towards the U.S.. In this case, whether the U.S. supports Taiwan or not, the US will not lose Taiwan anyhow and no additional diplomatic cost is involved. On the other hand, if Taiwan decides to go ahead on the path of reunifying with China, or if Taiwan does not actively seek reunification, nor actively resist China's plan of unification, it is not necessary for the United States to stand by Taiwan.

At the same time, regardless of reunification or independence, Taiwan will not deliberately offend the U.S., because the former is not a member of any international organization. For other countries that want to mess with the U.S., they can voice contrary opinions in international organizations, or even vote “yes” for bills that the U.S. disapproves. But Taiwan is not equipped to do so. As for other means to boycott the U.S. such as sanctioning Americans in Taiwan, they are options even China will steer clear of.

So, if Trump attaches no importance to Taiwan, or even wants to give up Taiwan at any moment, we should not feel surprised, because he is not the first one, and we can do nothing to change his mind. More importantly, it does not mean that his anti-China stance is inconsistent. In fact, this has been the policy logic of the U.S. over the past 40 years – that is, no matter who is in power, "political recognition" is the red line nobody ever crosses; arms sales are a highly political consideration; everybody knows very well the performance and numerical limits of the weapons; and Taiwan’s armed forces are not comparable with China's rapidly growing armed forces.

Fortunately, with respect to its cross-strait policies, the Tsai Ingwen government never believes that U.S. support for Taiwan is adequate enough to "enable Taiwan to have sufficient deposits in its anti-China account". Therefore, in many U.S.-China policies, Taiwan did not blindly say “yes” to the U.S, not least regarding the pneumonia epidemic that is raging around the world.

Identify the true picture of policies

The Trump administration has been lambasting China for the benefit of Trump’s re-election campaign. In addition, he implied that China deliberately (at least inadvertently) allowed local Wuhan people to travel all over the world after the outbreak of the epidemic in Wuhan. What’s more, he condemned China for withholding information on the epidemic. Although the Taiwan government did not unequivocally disagree with the claims made by the U.S., it hinted that China did not altogether hold information of the epidemic back from Taiwan. Taiwan did not agree with the criticisms made by the U.S., and may even implicitly endorse the opposite.

According to a report by the Central News Agency, on December 31, 2019, the Taiwan Centers for Disease Control (CDC) inquired about the epidemic situation with the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention and the World Health Organization (WHO). After receiving feedback from China, Taiwan announced an enforcement of border quarantine on New Year’s Eve and stepped up fever screening for inbound passengers as well as implementing entry quarantine measures for direct flights from Wuhan.

On January 6, 2020, former Vice Premier of the Executive Yuan Chen Chimai invited officials of the Ministry of Health and Welfare for discussion and planned to fly specialists to Wuhan in order to understand the epidemic situation and exchange opinions. On January 11, the CDC got permission from the China side. On the 12th, epidemic prevention specialists Chuang Yinching and Hung Minnan arrived in Wuhan, and on the 13th and 14th conducted epidemiological investigations. On the 16th, the two medical specialists held a briefing session at the CDC on the epidemic situation, hospital wards, diagnosis and treatments, and epidemic control measures. Subsequently, the CDC raised its travel warning at once for Wuhan city to Level 2.

The CDC also stated, "On January 9, 2020, Taiwan was notified by China that the pathogen was initially determined to be a new type of coronavirus, and the full-length gene sequencing of the virus has been completed.... Crown-like protrusions can be seen under the electron microscope, hence the name is given. In addition, there are seven coronaviruses known to infect humans, and other animal hosts include bats, pigs, cows, turkeys, cats, dogs, ferrets, etc. There are also sporadic reports about cross-species transmission."

Apparently, the Taiwan government acknowledges that China notified Taiwan on January 9 that this disease is spread by human-to-human transmission. Afterwards, the Taiwan government stressed time and again that the WHO was notified of the spread of this new infectious disease by possible human-to-human transmissions on December 31, 2019. In fact, this implies that China did not hide information from Taiwan. As the disease did not originate from Taiwan, if China did not inform Taiwan of the situation, what is the basis for Taiwan to tell the WHO that this disease is passed from person to person?

As for Taiwan later expressing willingness to donate protective clothing to Wuhan, thanking China for assistance in chartering flights, and not mentioning a word about the demand of the international community for an investigation into the epidemic and even claiming compensation from China, these are actually precise political statements. Obviously, the Taiwan government did not leverage this massive, international Wuhan pneumonia incident to lay bare its anti-China attitude. To verify Bolton words, Taiwan is not unprepared and naively believes that the U.S. will unwaveringly stand by Taiwan. Therefore, to accuse the Tsai government of being blindly pro-US and anti-China, or adamantly believe that Trump will side with Taiwan is unfounded and even dangerous. Perhaps the Taiwan society should "showcase facts and talk reasonably" more often rather than stick to preconceptions for deliberations and making decisions, when identifying true intentions of actual policies.

(Chang Kuocheng, Professor of General Education Center of Taipei Medical University and member of the Advisory Committee of Taiwan Think Tank)

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