The Disney movie “Mulan” was released two weeks ago and global activities to #boycottMulan are becoming increasingly intense. American bipartisan members proposed to request Disney to explain the reason for the film’s ending credits to thank Chinese government entities, including the Public Security and Tourism bureaus for Turpan and the Xinjiang government’s publicity department. The hottest threads on Reddit last Thursday were to poke fun at Disney’s removal of the Mushu Dragon character to make the film more believable. Instead of Mushu, Disney added Phoenix and a shapeshifting witch that can transform into a bird. Several European and American YouTube KOLs protested the movie setting that changed the protagonist who worked hard to become strong through persistent training to someone who was born with supernatural strength. As anticipated, netizens from Hong Kong, India, Taiwan and Thailand that make up the Milk Tea Alliance continued to advocate the boycott of “Mulan” because of the leading actress Liu Yifei’s public support of the Hong Kong police and their brutality during Hong Kong’s pro-democracy protests last year.

In Taiwan, the trending topic this week is whether the boycott will succeed. Many media reported that “Mulan” kicked off with gross earnings of more than 30 million Taiwan dollars (US$1 million) on the first week of its debut, scoring number one in the box office among new releases. Some commentators seized the opportunity to question the nationalism of the Taiwan people and the minority of the resistance, or attempt to separate politics from the movie. Before making comments, however, the focus should be redirected back to the reality: Is “Mulan” really a box-office hit?

First of all, “Mulan” is not the top-grossing movie, just number one at the box office for new releases that week because there were no other major releases around the same time. “Tenet,” in its second week of opening, was the number one box office last week and yielded a weekend score of 60 million Taiwan dollars, which is twice that of “Mulan.” Even “The Rope Curse 2” that debuted domestically has made 30 million Taiwan dollars in the same week. In other words, less than 30% of those people who went to the theater last weekend went to watch the newly released “Mulan.” “The Rope Curse 2,” a domestic film produced with 40 million Taiwan dollars, is able to compete head-on with Disney’s blockbuster “Mulan” that budgeted at 6 billion Taiwan dollars.

If comparing it with “Tenet” is unfair, then let’s compare it with other Disney movies. Disney released three movies last year: “Frozen II” sold 100 million Taiwan dollars in its first week of release, “The Lion King” earned 110 million Taiwan dollars in its first week and “Aladdin” grossed 60 million Taiwan dollars also in its first week. The box office achieved by these movies is in multiples of that for “Mulan.” Not to mention, the production budget for “Mulan” was much higher than “Frozen” and “Aladdin.” Some people may argue that, because of the epidemic, it cannot be directly compared. With that said, given there were three new Disney movies last year but only one this year, Taiwanese parents would spend all their Disney movie budget on “Mulan.” How do you compare this then? Moreover, even with the impact of the epidemic, “Peninsula,” the standalone sequel to “Train to Busan” which was released in Taiwan in mid-July, opened with $150 million Taiwan dollars in the first week of the debut. As such, it is not a question about no one going to the theaters.

The simple fact is that the number of viewers in the first-week debut for this year’s “Mulan” is less than any of the Disney movies released last year, in fact, it is only a third of that for “The Lion King.” None of the current reports that boast about the box office dare to bring up this comparison.

In even simpler terms, the cost of one movie ticket averages 200 plus Taiwan dollars so the current box office of nearly 40 million Taiwan dollars means it had at most 200,000 viewers, accounting for less than 1% of the population of Taiwan. Even in the circumstances that eventually the box office doubles, 400,000 Taiwanese is even lower than the number of votes obtained by the Taiwan Statebuilding Party during the primary elections last year. The Statebuilding Party should be overjoyed if this number is said to reflect enthusiastic support and a failure of the boycott, followed by comments on the quality of Taiwan people’s national traits.

I do not think the media or comments currently discussing and observing the box office of “Mulan” in Taiwan have political intentions. Nevertheless, boasting the movie’s box office does have substantial political effects. The most direct evidence is that the false titles of Thailand’s top-grosser in the first day of debut and Taiwan’s top-grosser in the first week of the debut were immediately replicated at all levels of Chinese official media and used as a marketing campaign for the local Chinese markets. In theory, first-week top-grosser achievement in relatively small markets such as Thailand and Taiwan is irrelevant to China’s huge market. Using this as a large-scale selling point is no doubt a campaign of foreign propaganda turned into domestic disinformation.

What is the purpose of self-boasting publicity? Previously, I used a political science questionnaire to conduct a psychological experiment on whether Taiwan people are willing to fight and obtained very interesting results. If a Taiwanese respondent reads a news article saying that the majority of other Taiwanese are willing to fight, then that person’s willingness to fight will greatly increase. Similarly, if the article says that the majority of Taiwanese are unwilling to fight, then that person’s willingness to fight will also significantly diminish. Game theory states that this is a simple cooperative behavioral logic. In that case, the current offense and defense propaganda at the box office will obviously affect whether Taiwan people will continue to cooperate with the boycott.

Judging from past examples, discussions and these offense and defense propaganda after the release will indeed affect the final box office. “Aladdin” did not do well in the box office when it was initially released last year, earning 60 million Taiwan dollars in the first week. However, ongoing positive reviews led to a surge of viewers in subsequent weeks. Finally, the movie made more than 300 million Taiwan dollars in the box office, as did “Frozen II” and “The Lion King.”

In contrast, “Mulan” grossed 30 million Taiwan dollars in the first week of showing. How the people of Taiwan will subsequently discuss, boycott, and attack or defend through public opinion will unquestionably affect whether the movie can reach the same 300 million Taiwan dollars in the box office as last year’s movies. The information shows that starting the second week from the release of “Mulan,” some theaters in Taiwan have already reduced their number of showings. In conclusion, it is too early to discuss the success or failure of Taiwan’s boycott of “Mulan.” The day when the movie is no longer showing in theaters is when we can determine whether #boycottMulan is successful or not. The final outcome depends on every reader who has read this article and yet to enter the theater.

(‪Austin Wang Horng-En is an assistant professor of political science at the University of Nevada in Las Vegas.)

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