Under Trump’s government, the U.S. has uncovered “America First” and “Make America Great Again” as the central idea. It follows unilateralism and pressurizes all parties, friends and foes, to pursue the biggest benefit for the U.S. Because of that, the U.S.-China relationship has gone into an extremely tense and confrontational status; although Taiwan has become the chip the U.S. uses to put pressures on China, but has accidentally profited from this and its relationship with the U.S. has reached its peak since they broke off their diplomatic relationship in 1979. However, Trump’s incapability of fighting the COVID-19 pandemic has led to recession, which has made it harder for him to reach his goal of being re-elected. Now, with the possibility of Biden, the presidential candidate from the Democrats, winning the election, it has caused concern on whether the U.S.’s policy on Taiwan would change in the future.

When Kissinger knocked open the door of China in the early 1970s, the U.S. policy towards Taiwan is a subordinate to its China policy; therefore Biden’s policy to Taiwan must be put within the U.S.-China-Taiwan strategy to be observed, and the U.S.-China-Taiwan triangle relationship is being affected by the international system.

First of all, the setup of the U.S.-China fight is formed. In terms of the international system, since winning the cold war back in the early 90s, the Bush Senior government set up the grand strategy to maintain global hegemony, which the U.S. to this date still abide by, “the lone hegemony” was the reflection and pride of the first 10 years of the U.S. since the cold war ended. However, the 911 event and financial crisis in 2008 hit the U.S. badly. China has, while the U.S. was focusing on anti-terrorism, quickly caught up and used the opportunity to rise up to overtake Japan and become the world’s second-biggest economy in 2010. When the U.S. finally came around, China has already become a thorn in its side.

Xi Jinping abandoned Deng Xiaoping’s last words of keeping one’s talent hidden with his high-profile pursuit of “the great revival of the Chinese nation” has raised the alarm of the U.S. elites. Treating China as the biggest threat of the U.S.’s superpower position is already a consensus of both the Republicans and Democrats. Being in a better position than the others, if Biden wins the election, keeping the U.S.’s hegemony and stopping China from overtaking would still be the pivot of his China policy. Therefore the international system is advantageous for Taiwan. Even if there is party alternation in the U.S., its Taiwan policy should not be changed much.

Secondly, the strategic situation is also beneficial for Taiwan. The three pairs of relationships within the U.S.-China-Taiwan triangle relationship, the U.S.-China relationship is the most important. Now the U.S. and China are fighting, the strategic importance of Taiwan in the East Asian area has increased and became wanted by both the U.S. and China. Taiwan has sided with the U.S. because of their similarities in ideology and political system. The feeling is mutual and hence the relationship has been improved, which led to the worsening of the China-Taiwan relationship. If Biden wins the election, while fighting with China, the U.S. still needs to consider the importance of its Taiwan strategy, maintain the U.S.-Taiwan relationship and oppress the China-Taiwan relationship.

Thirdly, Biden’s stance has changed. Being affected by the above two factors, Biden’s stance towards China has been changed drastically in the past year, and has become tougher. Some people believe Biden is “pro-China,” which is not too correct; Biden’s proposition is actually based on the national interest of the U.S., that’s why when George Bush Jr. said in 2001 they would “use whatever it took” to help Taiwan defend itself, Biden, a Senator at the time, criticized that according to the Taiwan Relations Act, it is the responsibility of the U.S. to provide Taiwan with defense articles and services, but it is not obliged to send troops to defend Taiwan.

What Taiwan needs to beware of is that Biden deals with China in a different way than Trump. He proposed to negotiate, communicate and work together with China. In March this year, Biden published “Why America Must Lead Again?” in the magazine “Foreign Affairs.” The article itself and comments from his main national security staff all take the same stand. Therefore it cannot be ruled out that once getting into the White House, Biden would adjust the Taiwan policy to pursue bigger profit for the U.S. Moreover, many Americans believe if China attacks Taiwan, the U.S. will send troops to support Taiwan. However, Taiwan is not the core interests of the U.S. but of China. Therefore the U.S. sending troops is unlikely, not with Trump and not with Biden.

Anyway, the U.S.’s Taiwan policy is restricted by the international system and the U.S.-China-Taiwan strategic situation. Biden may adjust the policy if he wins, but not much. His Taiwan policy would be like what the Democratic Party Platform in 2020 states, “Democrats are committed to the Taiwan Relations Act and will continue to support a peaceful resolution of cross-strait issues consistent with the wishes and best interests of the people of Taiwan (Taiwan region).” It is estimated under Biden’s rule, the U.S. would still sell arms to Taiwan to satisfy its defense needs. It will also adhere to the Taiwan Relations Act and promote bilateral exchange.

Taiwan should also be aware that Democrats has always been slightly siding with Beijing, Biden government may strategically and technically oppress the U.S.-Taiwan relationship in order to pursue the biggest profit for the U.S., such as delaying the arms sale delivery schedule, lower the ranks of visiting officials and restricting the transition locations of the president, etc. In terms of the Democrats removing “One China policy” in its party platform, that was only done for the election to go against Trump’s “anti-China” theme. If Biden gets elected, in order to negotiate with China, the “One China Policy” defined by the U.S. will probably rear its head again.

(Hu Sheng-ping, Associate Professor of Department of International Affairs and Business at Nanhua University.)

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