Since U.S.-China conflicts intensified in 2018, Taiwan has unavoidably been caught in the wrestling of the two powers. From the government’s point of view, it is a no-brainer to stand on the American side in the midst of the confrontation. However, such a stance is not quite endorsed by the opposing camp, who urges Taiwan to avoid taking side as this may do more harm than good.

But in view of the structural conflict between China and the U.S., and the fact that Taiwan is just a tiny actor in the mix, does the latter really have a choice amidst this strategic reality?

Realistically, Taiwan does not have much room to maneuver. First and foremost, Taiwan has long been heavily dependent on diplomatic, political, military and economic patronage of the Americans. Diplomatically, the U.S. plays an irreplaceable role in the foreign relations of Taiwan, who relies upon American support to expand international connections as well as their commitment to providing protective shield.

As far as politics is concerned, every political party in Taiwan is keen on maintaining a close relationship with the U.S.. This is especially obvious at times of presidential elections, as candidates from the two major parties rush to visit the U.S. so as to explain to the American government their political advocacy and policies related to diplomacy, national defense and relations across the Strait.

The tie between Taiwan and the U.S. is equally strong in the economic arena, with the latter being the main trading partner of the former. And to a very large extent, the economic development and prosperity of Taiwan has been benefiting from a lopsided American policy of opening the markets to them. And militarily, the extremely high level of reliance of Taiwan on the U.S. is even more apparent. While Taiwan has to import armaments for self-defense, it confronts a tough reality that most countries refrain from doing business with them due to the pressure from mainland China. As a result, the U.S. becomes the only one who dares to sell weapons to them.

In the past, Taiwan managed to purchase Mirage 2000 fighters from France and submarines from the Netherlands. However, such sources of armament supplies have been obstructed amidst strong objection from mainland China. Since then, Taiwan has had no choice but to purchase military equipment from the U.S., despite facing unfair pricing and strict limitations on weapon types and quantity.

It is beyond doubt that Taiwan and mainland China have huge discrepancies in terms of values, ideologies and political systems, which have made the idea of unification unacceptable to the majority of the Taiwan public. This is especially true to the younger generation, who have received localized education, hence identifying themselves more strongly with the Taiwanese consciousness. In fact, the general public is deeply convinced that Taiwan should decide its own destiny. It is only because of the fear of mainland China invasion that makes most Taiwanese prefer maintaining the status quo to declaring independence. This tendency is once again proved by a recent poll conducted by the Electoral Research Center of the Chengchi University.

As the Taiwan public refuses to entertain the notion of unification, they have to continuously live under the psychological threat from mainland China in almost every aspect. Beijing’s united front efforts are always active and vigorous, so does the strong containment in the diplomatic sphere. There is scramble for diplomatic relations, blockage of Taiwan’s participation in international organizations and even disrespectful damaging of the national flags of the Republic of China during international sports events. Recently, there came the news reports about the violent oppression of Hong Kong’s anti-extradition movement. And last but not least, jet fighters of the People’s Liberation Army are constantly intruding upon the airspace, trying to warn “the force of Taiwan independence”.

Therefore, in front of the escalating threat from mainland China, the only viable option left to Taiwan is to seek military, diplomatic and political support from the U.S.. And in such a condition, if the U.S. expects or demands Taiwan to stand on its side and act together to encounter mainland China, how can Taiwan refuse? Put it bluntly, it is realistically impossible for Taiwan to go against the American will.

Perhaps there are only two scenarios in which Taiwan can be free to make its own choice. The first is Taiwan being recognized as a normal sovereign state by Beijing. So, there is no more pressure of unification, just like the case of South Korea. The other scenario is that Taiwan ultimately unifies with mainland China. Yet, are Taiwanese people psychologically prepared to do so? In reality, none of the above indeed stands even the slightest chance to come true.

(Chao Wen-Chih, professor of the Institute of Strategic and International Affairs, National Chung Cheng University)

Click here for Chinese version

---------------------------------

Apple Daily’s all-new English Edition is now available on the mobile app: bit.ly/2yMMfQE

To download the latest version,

iOS: bit.ly/AD_iOS

Android: bit.ly/AD_android

Or search Appledaily in App Store or Google Play