Incumbent pro-democracy lawmakers will continue to serve in Hong Kong’s extended legislative term if more than half of respondents to their upcoming public survey want them to do so, the camp has announced.

The bar for deciding on the fate of the 22 lawmakers in the next one year was lowered from an earlier suggestion of two-thirds to half of the survey respondents, after the camp took into account concerns about an overly high threshold and possible distortion of the results by the pro-Beijing bloc.

Out of the 22 lawmakers, 15 expressed willingness to be fully bound by the survey outcome while seven had yet to make the commitment at the point of the pro-democracy camp’s announcement on Friday.

The public opinion poll will start on Sept. 21, jointly conducted by the Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute (HKPORI) and the Chinese University of Hong Kong’s Centre for Communication and Public Opinion Survey. The sample size is set at 2,000, half of which will be drawn from fixed-line telephone users and the other half from online respondents. Three questions will be asked.

Pro-democracy lawmakers are seeking their supporters’ views about whether to stay on and continue serving, after the Hong Kong government postponed the Legislative Council election, originally scheduled for Sept. 6, by a whole year because of a resurgence of COVID-19 cases. The government obtained Beijing’s approval for the deferral and later decided to let all incumbent legislators remain in office for at least one more year — but this provision triggered a split in the pro-democracy camp.

The threshold unveiled on Friday is lower than a previous proposal put forth by HKPORI head Robert Chung, one of the lead pollsters. Chung had suggested setting two thresholds: one that exceeded half of all Hongkongers, and the other that exceeded two-thirds of the reference group, meaning the supporters of those lawmakers who were willing to adhere to the poll outcome.

Wu Chi-wai, chairperson of the Democratic Party, on Friday explained their decision on the lower threshold, saying that members of the public had questioned if a minimum of two-thirds support might be too high.

Others were worried about the results being skewed by participation from people with pro-establishment leanings, Wu said, so the opinions of these people would only be used for reference.

The survey will be opened to all residents, but to address the latter issue, it will employ a “double-authorization system.” Respondents who are not supporters of the individual participating lawmakers will not have their opinions counted toward meeting the 50 percent threshold.

Chung said that the survey was designed to help reduce grey areas and controversies. Still, all the participating lawmakers had concerns about the people’s mandate.

He emphasized that a public opinion survey should at best be regarded only as a reference on public views, and in no way could it replace a public mandate, but because of time constraints, it was more expedient to use a survey to resolve the issue. He was unsure, however, whether society would be able to hold ample discussion and debate before the polling.

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