The Hong Kong government should close all places deemed high-risk for COVID-19 infection including bars and karaoke parlors amid the fourth wave of the virus, and the fifth wave may come at Christmas, a public health expert has warned.

COVID-19 did not disappear after the city’s third wave, and the increasing number of recent cases may see a rising trend over the next two weeks to become the fourth wave, said Professor Benjamin Cowling at the University of Hong Kong’s School of Public Health.

Cowling told the Apple Daily on Friday if high-risk establishments were not closed as soon as possible, Hong Kong could again start recording more than 100 cases per day. He predicted last week a fourth wave after the number of COVID-19 cases rose again, following several days of no cases recorded at the end of September.

If bars, karaoke parlors, night clubs and gyms were closed by next Monday, the number of cases would still rise for around two weeks due to the incubation period, but it may drop by November, Cowling said. If the number does not decrease, the government may have to impose more measures such as ordering civil servants to work from home, he said.

Cowling said it was unlikely for the city to record weeks of zero cases as was seen in May and June, as high-risk places could not remain closed after an extended period of no cases being reported. It would be better to impose social distancing rules for as long as possible, but this would harm the economy and people’s wellbeing, he said.

Residents would have to learn to live with the virus and there may be small waves of outbursts in the next six to 12 months, according to Cowling. As the fourth wave slows down and the government loosens its measures, the number of cases may rise again and spark the fifth wave around Christmas and the new year. Similarly, a sixth wave may occur in March or April.

If a vaccine is available by next summer, elderly people should receive it first to reduce the rate of severe cases and deaths, and social distancing measures can be relaxed, Cowling said. Residents can then receive the vaccine citywide, so that the pandemic may turn into a seasonal flu and there is no need to close high-risk places, he added.

The bar industry has said it was unfair to close all bars when cases were found in one bar. Cowling said in response that results from the second and third waves had shown that closing high-risk places can help controlling the pandemic. Foreign countries also chose to close bars instead of schools, he added.

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